Posted on 09/17/2008 2:19:46 PM PDT by decimon
D.C. INFORMS workshops show new ways to forecast presidential outcome, target voters
A new approach to determining which candidate will win the most electoral votes in the U.S. Presidential race factors in lessons learned from the 2004 election and uses sophisticated math modeling. The research will be presented at the annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS®).
As of September 16, the margin in electoral votes could be as high as 282.8 votes for Senator John McCain against 255.2 for Senator Barack Obama, depending on the forecasting scenario.
Operations researcher Sheldon H. Jacobson, a professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, along with a group of students and collaborators at Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, created http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu/, a math model that dynamically forecasts the outcome of the election.
Prof. Jacobson and colleagues will present their findings at the INFORMS annual meeting, which takes place in Washington, D.C. at the Marriott Waldman Park Hotel and Omni Shoreham Hotel from October 13 – 15, less than three weeks before the election. Over 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to attend. Information is at http://meetings.informs.org/DC08/.
Jacobson's model applies a mathematical model to state polling data, using a dynamic programming algorithm to forecast electoral results.
"The results from the 2000 and 2004 presidential election suggested that it can be difficult to predict the winner of the presidential election based on popular vote," says Jacobson. "In fact, it is possible that the popular vote and the Electoral College vote can lead to significantly different results."
Jacobson's model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state. He obtains state polling data from Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA. State-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2008 presidential election.
Professor Jacobson believes that this model provides a more realistic method of predicting the results. In 2004, when most other polls showed Kerry with a clear edge, his model consistently showed a Bush victory.
"We take into account 'safe' states— states that each candidate is basically guaranteed to win," says Jacobson. "In 2004, once you took into account Bush's 'safe' states, he had a much narrower gap to close to get to 270 electoral votes than Kerry."
In the model, a safe state is one in which the candidate has an 85% chance or greater of winning.
Jacobson's model also factors in undecided voters. It accounts for five different voting scenarios involving undecided voters, each considered individually. A "Neutral" scenario provides an unbiased handling of undecided voters. "Strong Republican" and "Strong Democratic" scenarios provide two extreme envelopes around which results can be judged and evaluated, while "Mild Republican" and "Mild Democratic" provide more realistic possibilities if late-breaking information surfaces that shift voter preferences.
"Undecided voters can have a significant role on the outcome of the election. In fact, they are likely to be the ultimate deciders of who will win this election," says Jacobson.
Not good enough. I want Hussein to carry only Illinois and D.C.
LOL! I like your attitude!!!
lol
Well, I think the days of any Republican winning the northeast and California are gone gone gone.
Just like the south is dead for Dems.
Two exceptions: New Hampshire, and Ross Perot helping Bill Clinton in Georgia.
0be has a lock on the beach bum vote in HI.
Obe has the vote of all the bums.... They are just waiting to pick up their cigarettes.
It actually makes it more likely to be wrong, if the assumptions made in the modeling turn out to be incorrect.
Besides which 27 votes in the electoral college is pretty much a dead heat. Usually even when the popular vote is pretty close, the electoral college is way lopsided. It's designed that way actually.
But the last few elections have been very close in both popular and electoral college. That in turn is a reflection of a growing regional polarization of the country. Which is not a Good Thing. The last time it got this bad, was probably around the 1840-1860 time frame. And that ended rather badly as you'll no doubt recall.
BINGO!
From Barry O's backyard? Someone should get them into protective services...? /s
You’re far too generous.
My recall is not quite that good.
Why are you conceding IL?
They aint saying!
So you think McCain can win Germany? What... that’s impressive... (/sarc)
I hope you are right. I want Obama beaten so bad his kids will be afraid to run for elected office.
Agreed, IL and DC (and I’m in Chitcagoland) are the only places he should even come close to taking.
Realistically though, I’ll be happy as long as McCain takes 40 states.
Arugula O’Teleprompter (D-Rezko) can have the other 17.
Agreed that California (my home state since birth) is a lost cause but we Californians still need to get out and vote for McCain/Palin for a couple of reasons:
* The nationwide popular vote needs to be solidly on our side (to prevent a repeat of the Gore 2000 whining)
* If the percentages show that we’re closer than in 2000 or 2004 it’ll embolden future conservative/republican candidates to try harder to win here
* We might get some coattails for Poizner and others
* It’ll be a slap in the face of the Hollyweird crowd
* It’ll feel good to repudiate 0bama at the ballot box and cancel out some lib votes from San Fran and Berzerkeley
* Palin’s hot and McCain’s a hero
Residents of other blue states are ancouraged to do the same, for whatever reasons you find applicable.
“Not good enough. I want Hussein to carry only Illinois and D.C.”
bttt
I want Hussein to carry only water.....
bmflr
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