If He Can Make It There . . . McCain shows strength in New York.

National Review Online ^ | September 17, 2008 | David Freddoso

[neverdem]

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September 17, 2008, 7:00 a.m.

If He Can Make It There . . .
McCain shows strength in New York.

By David Freddoso

‘Within striking distance in New York . . . ”

These words come from a New York Republican party press release, so take them with a grain of salt. But with a new independent poll showing McCain just five points behind Democrat Barack Obama in New York State, the idea is not necessarily as unrealistic as it first sounds.

A Siena poll of likely voters, conducted on September 8 and 9, shows Obama with an anemic 46 to 41 percent lead in the state. By contrast, John Kerry won by 19 points in 2004, and just this June, the same poll gave Obama an 18-point lead. McCain has narrowed the gap slightly each month since then.

More striking is Obama’s loss of the 24-point edge he held among women in June, which the Siena poll pinned at just two points last week. More than half of the erosion came before the selection of Sarah Palin.

“There is the Hillary Clinton factor as well,” said Steven Greenberg, who conducted the poll for Siena. “That’s important here in New York.”

The Siena poll also shows a pronounced swing among Jewish voters, who typically comprise up to 12 percent of the statewide vote. The margin of error for this group is large at 11 percent, but the 35-point swing leaves Obama trailing 32 to 54 percent.

McCain’s favorable/unfavorable ratings have improved substantially since June, whereas Obama’s have slightly worsened. Voters prefer Obama overwhelmingly on issues of education and health care, but they rank McCain higher on national security issues and trust in his qualifications more than in Obama’s.

Can McCain play in New York? His allies like to think so, and hope that he will dedicate resources to a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans five-to-three. “McCain’s level of independence does strike a positive note in New York State,” said Jerry Kassar, Brooklyn chairman of the state’s Conservative party, which will be endorsing McCain on Monday.

New York Democrats are doing their part to get McCain elected as well. In addition to the prostitution scandal that forced the resignation of Gov. Elliot Spitzer earlier this year, several among their ranks have received unflattering news coverage this month:

U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D., Manhattan), the chairman of the U.S. House committee that writes the nation’s tax policy, has admitted to dodging his income taxes, failing to report rental income from his resort condo in the Dominican Republic. This week, Roll Call reported that he also misreported the value of a condo he bought in Florida in 2004 on his financial disclosure forms, and then failed to report the $70,000 profit that he made from selling it. Rangel currently holds four rent-controlled apartments in Manhattan — a rare feat for a non-congressman. Democrats have responded to these apparent ethical breaches by closing ranks around Rangel.


Malcolm Smith, the Democratic minority leader of the state Senate, told a group of lobbyists that they must either begin contributing to Senate Democrats now, or be shut out of the Senate if Democrats win a majority there in November. When the lobbyists present complained to reporters about this obvious shakedown attempt, Smith said that his remark had been meant as “entertainment.”

Assemblyman Anthony Seminario (D., Queens) has been charged with taking $500,000 in bribes in connection with his legislative work. Seminaro was charged after an investigation that included an undercover FBI agent posing as a contractor, whom Seminario brought down to the floor of the state assembly.

Local issues may have a very limited effect on the presidential race, but they could create extra burdens for New York’s Democratic party even as it is needed to keep Obama afloat.

McCain may not be able to carry the Empire State and its 31 electoral votes this fall — after all, no Republican has done so since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide over Walter Mondale. But if McCain can force Obama to dedicate any time or resources to defending New York, that alone will improve his chances in swing states with many electoral votes, such as Ohio (20), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (21), and Michigan (17).

An expensive ad buy in New York could also give him a shot at neighboring states, said Barry Zeplowitz, a Buffalo-based pollster who is doing polls for McCain in other states. “The metro market obviously impacts New Jersey and even Connecticut,” he said. Although Connecticut does not appear to be competitive, a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday shows McCain trailing by just three points in New Jersey.

Greenberg, who conducted the Siena poll, cautioned against reading too much into its results until other polls confirm it, and promised a future poll to see where the trend-lines go from here. “This was a snapshot coming out of the two conventions and the two vice presidential selections,” he said. “We want to go back in a couple of weeks and look again as the campaign really gets going.”

— David Freddoso is a staff reporter for National Review Online and author of the newly released The Case Against Barack Obama.

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[xcamel]

Likely’s now show a spread of FOUR!!

[rushmom]

These state polls reflect the five point national lead he had last week. His polls are sinking this week as he goes right back to that left wing populism stuff. If he doesn’t get away from that and get back to conservatism which gave him his lead, you’ll see those state polls sink next week.

[bahblahbah]

Not a chance, Rasmussen has it far apart and state polls are lagging. The McCain campaign is starting to lose it...

[Bosco]

It’s poop hemorrhage time if NY is this close.

[Tallguy]

I’m a little worried about Rasmussen’s methodology. He just re-jiggered his ‘weighting formula’ which looks strangely like “fudging the results” to me.

Others say that Ras’ methodology ‘trails’ the polls that use random voter selection as a basis. Who knows?

[neverdem]

Not a chance, Rasmussen has it far apart and state polls are lagging. The McCain campaign is starting to lose it...

bahblahbah, you always seem so negative when I come across your comments.

[KevinDavis]

The chicken little speaks...

[MrB]

I always look for the missing sarc tag when he posts.

[panaxanax]

I will bite my tongue, hold my nose and close my eyes while I vote for McCain if it looks like he could actually win in NY. Otherwise I am writing in John Bolton/Duncan Hunter in order to sleep at night knowing that I wasn’t responsible for millions of illegal aliens gaining citizenship.

[KevinDavis]

I think he is super serial..

[MeanWestTexan]

“If he doesn’t get away from that and get back to conservatism which gave him his lead, you’ll see those state polls sink next week”

Bingo.

[MeanWestTexan]

“If he doesn’t get away from that and get back to conservatism which gave him his lead, you’ll see those state polls sink next week”

Bingo.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I don’t know if Ras is right or not, but I have heard that the Dems have internal NY polls that are scaring the crap out of them. Before I write off NY, I’ll wait for another poll or two to see where we are. I can buy a big difference between the two, but I honestly don’t buy Obama at 55%.

[The Hound Passer]

I don’t think McCain has a hairball’s chance of winning any of these lefty N.E. states BUT with the polls closing in on what are “sure thing” states for Obama he may have to send reinforcements in which means he can’t send as many to the “purple” states. Edge: McCain.

[jacquej]

I also vote my conscience.

It is telling me, an upstate NY grandma, to vote for McCain. I care about my children and grandchildren more than the illegal aliens.

[montag813]

This is a delusion. Obama is up by at least 12 points. Let’s stop wasting thread time on this nonsense.

[rushmom]

I don’t like to express myself this way. But John McCain is stupid. He should be clobbering the democrats and OBama over the head with this finacial mess because they caused it. If he wins this election, it will be because of Sarah and in spite of himself. How simply brilliant to only blame Wall Street for this. Who advises him, Wil E Coyote?

[AdaGray]

That would sure restore my faith in this, my God forsaken state.

[phillyfanatic]

I hope that John spends some dough there and even shows up in Western NY where Rochester and Buffalo might actually like the Sarahacuda.