Virginia - Obama 50, McCain 46 (Survey USA)

Survey USA ^ | 9-15-08

[1035rep]

This isn't over at all.

McCain is only down 5 in NEW YORK, nobody really believes Obama is ahead in VA.

All other polls give McCain a 4 to 5 point lead.

Obama is sinking everywhere, but we should always fight like we're behind.

[1035rep]

"It is and will be a landslide for McCain"

Everything is trending that way.  Obama has been going down since July. 

[rfp1234]

McCarty = McCain, Claude the Turtle = Obambi.

[johniegrad]

In my post #45, I answered unspun:

This poll appears to skewed toward the DC suburbs.

Take a look at which television stations were involved in the polling. Then take a look at a list of the 10 largest cities in Virginia:Virginia Beach, 438,415; Norfolk, 231,954; Chesapeake, 218,968; Arlington, 195,965; Richmond, 193,777; Newport News, 179,899; Hampton, 145,579; Alexandria, 135,337; Portsmouth, 100,169; Roanoke, 92,631

Unless someone is polling Tidewater, then the results would not be surprising. Tidewater is made up of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Newport News, Hampton, and Portsmouth.

Guess who lives in Tidewater? Military, military, and more military.

No Tidewater television station is involved in this polling. Unless the other stations are polling Tidewater this would have to be considered a deliberate attempt to mislead the public.

Again, I don't know whether they polled Tidewater or not, but none of the stations are from that area.

Having reviewed their methodology, they refer to "Southeast Virginia" but don't define what that is. Furthermore, they report that in "Southeast Virginia" Obama is polling 56% to McCain 40%. This would be incomprehensible to me given all the military in Tidewater. Why didn't they involve a Tidewater television station? Did they actually poll Tidewater? I have my doubts and the answers cannot be had by looking at their methodology.

[Plutarch]

Wilder effect. Obama is behind by 6-7 in VA at least.

Wilder effect? Naw, not in Virginia. Oh...wait...Wilder was from Virginia. Never mind.

[jveritas]

Anyone who believes that Obama has a chance of winning Virginia is a delusional fool.

Anyone who believes that Obama has a chance of winning this elections is a delusional fool.

[1035rep]

I just have to laugh at the Freepers who truly believe that Obama has a chance in this election

BTTT

[LS]

SurveyUSA has not been “the most democrat.” In fact, back in the primaries, it was the only poll to consistently show McCain doing well against all the Dems. I think it is pretty reliable, and I think McCain’s two biggest worries are CO and VA.

[Plutarch]

Anyone who believes that Obama has a chance of winning Virginia is a delusional fool.

It is delusional fools, then, that are betting at Intrade that Obama has a 40% chance of winning Virginia. Those are the types of fools that go separate ways with their money.

[LibLieSlayer]

I simply cringe when I see your name and read the negative pessimism that you constantly spew here. You have every right to do it... but you offer nothing in the way of help and seek to divide and demoralize.

LLS

[USS Alaska]

Lord help us if Obama wins. I have doubled my prayers at night, but mostly to ask for forgiveness for the terrible names I call the media all day.

Keep praying and stop calling names, get off your keyboard and go to the pubbie headquarters, donate time and money, be hopeful and helpful.

Whining doesn't get it done, give us some help.

[unspun]

Exactly. This poll is a red flag about Survey USA for the future.

BTW, compare it with the latest poll results from New York, of all places! (Not that I believe that, either.)

[semantic]

Wait until the debates. Hussein bumbles, stumbles & stammers more than Bush; except he's supposed to be, in the words of Biden, "clean & articulate".

McC just has to get in some jabs about experience, Ayers, Wright, etc. Once America gets a look at this guy in all his glory, they're gonna turn away in droves.

[RipSawyer]

And then if they’re asked by a black pollster, then they definitely feel too uncomfortable to admit they’re not voting for the black guy.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It’s a shame we have so many wimpy voters.

[adorno]

I'm still expecting a very close race.

I stand by my prediction. It's McCain by 55% or more of the votes and more than 300 EVs.

Remember, people may be getting swamped with a lot of material form all directions about the candidates, but, they're still not making up their minds, not totally. In the end, a week or two before that elections, people will start consolidating their decisions.

And, guess what? McCain has gained ground and is leading in most states that matter to him and has picked up ground in what was expected to be Obama territory. And all of that has happened without even the first debate occurring. After the first debate, which I believe involves national security, Obama will take a major hit in the polls. Mark my words, if Obama is worried now, his campaign will go into emergency mode after the first debate..

[Roklok]

Wilder effect on this poll. We will also see the Wilder effect on the exit polls the day of the election and will need to wait until the actual votes are counted.

[JohnnyZ]

Survey USA polls swing back and forth a bit sometimes but are pretty accurate in the long run. They have:

North Carolina
McCain +20

Virginia
Obama +4

Neither of those is accurate: NC is closer and McCain leads VA. In 2004, Bush won NC by 12.44% and VA by 8.20%, a little over 4% difference. Virginia has moved closer to the Democrats, but not 24 points away from NC.

[puroresu]

Do you think the internals in this poll are reliable? That McCain and Obama are tied in Virginia among men? That one in six GOP voters in the state are supporting Obama?

The Dems won two high profile races in Virginia in the past couple of years, Webb and Kaine. In both cases the election was a squeaker. In both cases the Dems ran as moderate-to-conservative Democrats (something Obama can’t get away with). In both cases, conservative Republicans were disenchanted and didn’t turn out in great numbers. In this race, Palin has rallied the base unlike any candidacy since Reagan.

It would be arrogant for McCain to simply presume he’ll carry Virginia, but I don’t see much chance for Obama to win it. There simply aren’t enough blacks or white Northern Virginia leftists to carry the state, especially in a presidential race where the Dem candidate can’t mask his leftism, and where the GOP base is motivated.

[Darren McCarty]

One of the greatest games I’ve ever watched. McCarty settles a score against Turtle, and then scores the winning goal in Overtime.

[kezzek]

You have no idea how helpful I’ve been. And as far as name calling, didn’t you just call me a whiner, lol.