McCain/Palin 2008 Leading in the Electoral College

Karl Rove ^ | 091508 | Karl Rove

[Wilder Effect]

I agree. McCain will either win NH, Penn, or Mich early the night which will deflate Obama voters out West. Then CO, NV, and NM will fall into place.

[GOP_Raider]

PA will end up going to Hussein, but if the Dims can’t manufacture enough votes in Philly and Pittsburgh to cheat, it’s over.

[StonyMan451]

Even though Electoral-vote.com is run by an Obama supporter, he has generally been pretty honest about the current state of the polls.

According to him, as of last Friday, McCain has the magical number of 270 electoral votes!

He counts states a little differently than most sites, though, as follows

• Even - The state is not awarded
• 1% - 5% - The state is awarded to the leading candidate, but it is outlined in red or blue
• 6% - 10% - The state is awarded to the leading candidate and is colored in light blue or red.
• > 10% - The state is awarded to the leading candidate and is colored in dark blue or red.

He updates the site daily, and counts all polls within the last week.

[CatOwner]

First of all, Iowa voted for Dukakis in 1988, Clinton twice and Gore in 2000. It was never a Red state.

I never mentioned Iowa in any of my posts. I think this was meant for someone else.

McCain will win CO, NM, and NV along with either Penn or Mich due to the Bradley Effect.

I think NV goes McCain, NM will likely go for Obama, and CO I have no idea, which scares the living crap out of me. I think that the Bradley Effect will me much smaller than in previous high profile elections vs. the final polls right before Election Day.

[Lonely Bull]

Anybody know what's wrong with Iowa?

I was about to post this (before you did, heh):

I'm not aiming to compare polls directly to other polls, but doesn't it strike anyone else as weird that Iowa has a recent average of -14% while California has -11% or Massachusetts has -9%? I hear people here talking about ethanol as an issue in Iowa, but those numbers...

(McCain and Palin are having a rally in Cedar Rapids this week, on the 18th. They're probably not planning on rallies--yet--in certain other states that, on this map, have better percentage numbers. Washington, anyone?)

[Redmen4ever]

You know why they only bury Iowa farmers only 3 feel down?
So they can still get their hand out.

[Fed_up_in_PA]

McCain will pick up PA, based on the dramatic shift in Dem attitudes I’ve witnessed in the Pittsburgh area alone.

[Integrityrocks]

I still think the trend is that Washington State is fed up with the garbage for government they’ve been putting up with and are strongly moving toward being a red state. It should at least be a toss up right now.

[drangundsturm]

Even Washington is in striking distance!

[Obadiah]

Yeah, with the possible exception of NM, I agree.

[Fred]

In Iowa, Obama supports ETHANOL, McCain does not...

[Fred]

SNAP!!

[Wilder Effect]

Fair enough. We disagree on the importance of the Bradley Effect.

As reported this past weekend by the BBC. Many DEM Governors of Swing States have been warning Obama that his real poll numbers are 4 to 6% lower than current poll results due to hidden racism.

Here in the Midwest speculation is that the Governors who said this are Strickland, Rendell, and Lynch. Obama advisor's refuse to acknowledge it, but due to his performance in these states against Hillary they think it is real.

[LearnsFromMistakes]

what is wrong with Iowa...good question.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=19&f=0&off=0&elect=0

(I think I like that site) Much like the rest of the country, the population centers vote D. We have an aging population, and after 2 Regan wins, we went heavy D, slowly sliding back to R (Bush won in 2004, but not in 2000).

[Huskerscott]

I believe Iowa goes for Nobama and you made your case well. Nevada and New Mexico have large hispanic populations, and as you saw in the primary with Clintoon v Nobama, race does play a part in this election in these states (there has always been tensions in the black and hispanic communites with each other historically). It is difficult to predict how this will play out, will they pull the lever for Nobama at all, will they turn out and pull the lever for him if they think he is going to lose?

Of all the battleground states that are blue (WI, MI, PA, WA), I think you can make a strong arguement for PA coming over to our side and the rest going narrowly for Nobama. So as you watch the returns come in on election day, if Nobama does not pick up PA, he is doomed (PA = 21 electoral votes).

Good link to keep up with the pushes and pulls of the electoral votes:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[SampleMan]

Picking off MI or PA from ZeroBama is looking king. There are other ways to get to 270, but if MI and/or PA are put in the McCain column, then there is no hope for the Marxists.

[Mr. Jeeves]

Decent benefits, cheap housing, plenty of meth.

Yes, I'm thinking that a graph showing the correlation between strength of the meth culture and "blueness" of a given area would be very revealing.

[Ol' Sparky]

Two recent polls in New Mexico showed McCain ahead there so I have to think it is in play as well.

[Servant of the Cross]

and it's even better as this data is somewhat stale. Look at NY which shows (-16%). An article today shows that this gap is only (-5%) right now.

[Fred]

Rove’s polling method tends to be conservative and includes many public polls...