Posted on 09/13/2008 9:10:11 PM PDT by Salena Zito
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Data from the 2004 Exit Polls in PA
The electorate was 13% black, 3% Latino.
Kerry took the black folks’ vote 84% - 16%. The Latino vote went Kerry 72-28.
If we elevate Obama’s share of the black vote to 95%, that’s an overall electorate increase of 1.4%. They say they have registered many more, but I have seen no proportionality in registration numbers from there.
White women were 43% of the electorate and Bush won them 51-48%. If Sarah Palin peels off just 4% of them, that is a 1.7% change in the total electorate results and would swamp out the boost in black votes. In fact, the 0.3% net gain is 1/3 of what McCain would have to win to flip the state.
The point being, white women are the bulk of the electorate. A few percent of them changing changes everything.
I know that Bush did surprisingly well among Catholics in central and southern Ohio, NE Pennsylvania (exurbs for north Jersey), eastern Iowa and western New Mexico. The white collar suburbs of NJ are heavily Catholic (which Bush won) as are the blue collar ones (which he lost, albeit not as bad as in 2000). The fact remains that Bush lost every state with a Catholic majority or plurality over 35%, with the exception of NM.
This election will be like none before it in the swing states of OH, MI, PA, WI.( FLA is in the bag)
The Reason is Sarah Palin! The Christian right loves her, the conservatives love her, the gun voters ( Tons of those in them states) love her, and she and her husband Todd appeal to the non barking moonbat Dem women and union voters.
Now just mix in the fact that McCain at the top of the ticket doesn’t scream big business puppet like G W Bush did and I see no possible way they can lose.
WI by 1, Mi by 2, OH by 5, PA by just under 1(3/4?) on election night is my guess.
You are confusing what I have said, with what the article has said.
I didn’t say McCain would carry allegheny county, I said he’d win the state. You don’t need to win Allegheny county to win the state, I don’t know what fool put that idea forward, but its a complete false pretence.
As to your questions regarding Fauxbama running higher in OH and IN than McCain.. I’m not sure what you are asking. OH and IN will be in the bag R long before election night.
PA will be tight, I don’t think it will be a blowout, but Fuaxbama will not win PA, IMHO. He’s not getting the backing of the voters he needs.. he just came out today with an ad mocking McCain for being old?? Are you kidding me, that’s not going to win you friends here, with are very high elderly population.
The slickster with all his words and no action is not going to trump the war hero with a record, it will not happen here. Look at the polls.
Here’s the facts as I see them, in general about this election.
ANY STATE that FAUXBAMA was not up by 5 points or more prior to the DNC convention, he is going to lose, period.
ANY state where Fauxbama was up between 5-8 points will be the battleground states and he’ll lose at least some of them
IN PA< Fauxbama was up 12 about a 2 months ago, today he’s up 3. He’s not going to hold, he is not and never has connected with voters, at least not the voters he needs to win to carry PA. Hillary beat him by 9 points at the tail end of the primaries... he’s been in big trouble here since before he even had the nomination won, and nothing fundamentally has changed with his campaign or on the ground since then.
PA is not a state that is going to give its vote to a simple cult of personality, it won’t happen. Combine this with the fact without the state machine pushing hard, no statewide democrat wins, and Fast Eddie is in the bag for Hillary, he’s not going to do anything more than token efforts to help Fauxbama.
Too many thought Bush was a rich oil man who was the son of a rich man who didn't earn his money.
Think the TV show "Dallas" as opposed to Walker Texas Ranger. He made inroads because of John Kerry, but not enough to win.
The Collar Counties of Philly have been getting more Dem, while the Collar Counties of Pittsburgh have been getting more Red. Pennsylvania isn’t a T anymore... its more of an L, and we are only a few election cycles away from where the only blue county west of harrisburg is going to be allegheny. The ring counties around it have been moving R for quite some time.
Also, allegheny county itself, while it may never turn red, will be moving less blue, as the old mill folks etc and their wives die off.
Typically a democrat needs to carry about I belive something like 80% of the vote out of the Philly area for it to hold on through the rest of the state voting... Fauxbama will need to get 90-95% out of that region to hold through the state and that’s just not going to happen.
I would not bet against McCain winning Pennsylvania or Michigan. Those are not good states for Obama, and the only reason he may be ahead in PA right now is Joe Biden being hyped as a local.
This is why a state like PA is in play this year, and why we need to continue campaigning in northern, and northeastern states. If NY can elect a GOP Governor and NYC mayor, then theoretically it can also be won... not very likely this year, or as a very long shot possibility considering the extreme bias of the media, but sometime in the near future. Like PA, we should be campaigning in NY this year, particularly in upstate where our vote is. I have traveled all through NY and it looks just like Georgia or Alabama... rolling hills, small towns with middle-class people. Really not much difference. There is even a town named "Alabama" in NY, (and a "South Alabama", naturally, just south of it.)
I hope they also campaign in Illinois. That state has had some huge setbacks in the local party, but it can be rebuilt. It was because there wasn't a viable Illinois candidate to run for Senate at a moments notice after the winner of GOP primary had to withdraw, that Obama was able to run against an outsider, appointed by the party: Alan Keyes.
If we had won that race, we wouldn't be faced with the prospect of an inexperienced, glib, socialist running the country.
I found this interesting write-up about Obama's Senate race: (excerpted from: http://www.ilsenate.com/ )
Barack Obama, Gery Chico and Dan Hynes appeared at celebration of Eid ul-Adha at the Rosemont Convention Center:
Thousands of Muslims dressed in colorful formal garb prayed together in mosques, convention centers and other meeting places Sunday to mark Eid ul-Adha, a holiday celebrating sacrifice and thankfulness to God. During this election year, politics played a role in the festivities, too, with voter registration booths set up at most sites and political candidates speaking at larger forums, such as at the Rosemont Convention Center, where up to 15,000 Muslims were expected for three prayer services.
Before the prayers began, Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Barack Obama, Gery Chico and Dan Hynes addressed the crowd. They paid their respects and criticized some federal policies, such as the Patriot Act, instituted after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
ironically, Reagan even lost the 1980 GOP Primary in PA to Bush 41 by 10 pts
Kerry “campaigned” with Specter. Remember the “Kerry and Specter” signs in ‘04?
Rendell got more excited on his Eagles post game show appearance last week than he ever has for Obama.
I think if Palin actually shows up at a PA appearance with a Westbrook jersey on, he might endorse the GOP
Yea, I’ve heard that BS line they are trying to sell about Biden... some idiot talking point even claiming he’s PA’s 3rd senator... What total crock. I’ve lived here since 1986, and I’ve never heard Biden and Pennsylvania mentioned together once, now suddenly he’s the VP candidate and they want to try to spin him as though he’s our 3rd Senator? Are you kidding me.
PA is just not going to go for fauxbama, I don’t see ANYTHING on the ground that remotely shows me he’s going to win. In MI, Fauxbama is in trouble for a lot of on the ground reasons he can’t control, and tactical reasons he could have, from what I understand. He didn’t run in MI, so he had no machine on the ground there, and is ONLY NOW starting to try to build one? IF this is true, he’s done.
I am not as familiar with MI politics personally as I am with PA, and I may eat crow on election night regarding my call on PA, but if Fauxbama is winning PA, he’s doing it somehow using stealth, because there is nothing on the ground that I am seeing that remotely points to him winning.
Reagan Democrats would not have voted in the 1980 GOP primary, we don’t have open primaries.. Only the party faithful vote in primaries, and BUSH was the party man in 1980.
Yep, Rendell’s made no qualms that he’s always been in the bag for Hillary. Hell he basically did nothing but campaign for her for nearly a year when she was running. He expected a cabinet post from her. He’s never ever backed Fauxbama.
He will do the token things for Fauxbama, but that’s it. He will not mobilize the state machine for him, Rendell knows Fauxbama crashes and burns, Hillary rises from the ashes in 12 as the nominee and a very good shot at the white house. He, just like Hillary and Bill, have benefit from actually helping him win. They’ll do the absolute minimum token required, and nothing more.
sorry that should read :
He, just like Hillary and Bill, have no benefit in actually helping him win.
There were; most became Republicans. This is entirely anecdotal, but is the result of close observation and experience. Both sets of my grandparents came to the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and set to work in the Western Pa mines. My paternal grandparents' kids generally went into the military, whereas the children of my maternal grandparents generally stayed in the mines. The tales you hear about these little coal town homes having a picture of Christ on one wall, and a picture of FDR on the other are generally true, and remained so for decades following WWII in the largely Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox coal and steel towns.
The first presidential election following Roe v. Wade was 1976, and the union true believers stuck with the dems, somewhat setting aside religion; however, by 1980 the entrenchment of the pro-death advocates in the dem party, plus the Carter malaise in the coal and steel towns was enough to get traditional FDR/JFK democrats to at least take a look at Reagan. By 1984, those serious about their religious convictions and the pro-life issue had all registered republican. Others who placed their union loyalty above all else stayed dem, and generally do so to this day.
IMHE(xperience), the abortion issue has been the defining issue...not even 2nd Amendment issues have produced (as) much in the way of republican gains amongst rural and semi-rural Pennsylvanians.
One minor inroad has been Pittsburgh's transition from an industrial to a more service-oriented, white collar town, which has led to some from traditionally dem families to move to the right, at least as far as fiscal issues are concerned.
Would it be fair to say that perhaps many of these highly touted “ newly registered Dimocrats “ , in many of these states , are in fact actually Operation Chaos voters ?
I have a feeling that the Dims are in for a rude awakening come election day , as they never really did take Operation Chaos seriously ...
Yes. Palin reminds me of Ronald Reagan and Reagan won every state except Mass. Mike Reagan, one of Reagan’s sons, said upon hearing Palin speak at the convention, it was like having his dad there all over again only she’s female (his words).
Like Reagan the media is endlessly attacking them. They don’t get it. Reagan just got more popular. Let’s hope the media sink to where they belong. They still couldn’t figure out that McCain/Palin is just getting stronger. Well good honest people will always rise. I’ve never seen the media more biased and dishonest. Any shred of truth anyone thought they had goes out the door. Is it any wonder that journalist are considered by Americans the most untrustworthy.
I personally liked Obama but I know like many are saying he will indeed raise taxes on just about everyone in order to pay for all things advertised. The list is not limited to: keeping all the illegals (the Democrat party sold us, the American people, for their votes), socialized medicine/health care, global warming initiatives that are extremely expensive (why are we doing this at a time the economy is hurting), paying back the special interest, etc. Oh and he will ruin the Supreme Court: I can’t believe he said that Clarence Thomas isn’t smart enough—unbelievable. According to my husband (a high IQ jew) when one hears Thomas and reads what he writes this man is brilliant.
One more thing lots of people had thought the economy got worse because the war was going on too long. Hence they are siding with Obama there. However think about this. In the company I work at we lost government contracts or had them stalled beginning 2006. Now what is 2006? On yeah the take over of congress by the Democrats. That’s where the economy went. If you see this parallel too spread the word e.g. talk radio, posting.
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