Posted on 09/12/2008 7:47:36 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Barack Obama knows it. The election he had in the bag is slipping away.
The selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate has so thrown him off stride, as it has most other Democrats, that all the momentum he had has vanished. He’s getting panicky advice from everywhere. He intends to launch more and sharper attacks, abandoning any pretense of a new and different, more civil campaign.
Democrats know something, and desperation is setting in. They have a novice campaigner who wanders off message. With every advantage in the primaries, Obama couldn’t win the big states — New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania — against Hillary Clinton, even when he got to define the rules for running against him. She could never risk alienating the base she’ll need in 2012; John McCain and Sarah Palin have no such constraints — hence the panic.
For a “change” candidate, Obama appears to be a man locked in time, unable to move past criticism, unable to move from the grip of the Democratic left, unable to adapt to the changed reality that the campaign is not the referendum on the war in Iraq or on the administration of George W. Bush that he’d envisioned.
He’s begun to sound dated. Last week, for example, he devoted valuable campaign days — less than two months remain — into explaining a silly “lipstick on a pig” line. The McCain campaign had reacted, accusing him of making the reference to Palin. “I don’t care what they say about me,” Obama responded. “But I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and ‘Swiftboat politics.’ Enough is enough,” he said. (The Swiftboat reference is from the 2004 campaign of John Kerry).
The Democratic left is still seething from the Kerry campaign’s loss and is determined to see Bush expelled from the White House in disgrace — the reason it is locked in to making this a referendum on the administration now ending.
It barely worked when the maverick McCain, no darling of the Bushites, got the nomination. With Palin, the Washington outsider, the “third term” argument is plainly absurd. But Obama can’t let go, just as the lefties can’t let go of the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth defeat of Kerry. He can’t move on.
Obama has the habit, too, of reminding voters of their doubts about him, as he did in reminding a Detroit audience that he’s been accused of being less interested in protecting you from terrorists than reading them their rights. And, when he professes love of country as his basis for refusing to allow the McCain campaign to attack his words, he raises questions about why he finds the affirmation of love necessary.
Obama will lose because with less than two months remaining voters won’t be able to get comfortable with him. He can’t stay on message and he can’t avoid sending signals that interfere with the message when he does.
McCain, on the other hand, has been superb going back at least to Obama’s European tour. Mainstream America is comfortable with him and, with Palin’s selection, conservatives who had their doubts are onboard. The GOP is energized and suddenly an unwinnable election is reversed.
Obama got this far by winning small states and Southern states he has no chance of carrying in November. In Georgia, for example, the latest Insider Advantage poll has McCain pulling 56 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Obama, numbers that are not likely to change more than 4 percentage points in November. The undecideds and those who intend to vote for third-party campaigns are at 6 percent.
In this election, voters will decide early. Obama’s been in a yearlong campaign; McCain’s familiar. The two are sufficiently exposed and known for voters to make a decision now.
It’s not over. But it’s getting there — and Obama knows it.
Doesn't anyone else recall the similar predictions of Kerry getting blown out of the water? Who could vote for him, after all? Well, a lot of people did, and without the cult of personality of the Obamaniacs. All I'm saying is that it seems premature to think this is wrapped up and done, that's all. Come Nov. 5 you're more than welcome to say I Told Ya So, but right now cautious optimism seems to be the better approach. jmo
Agreed. I’m not counting any chickens myself, but the hole that Obama is in is undeniable. It would take a game change along the lines of a Palin nomination to turn things around for him and I can’t see anything on the horizon.
The debates are only going to hurt Obama. He can’t think on his feet and if the media helps him too much, a majority of the public already thinks that the media is trying to elect him, so that doesn’t really help him either. I’d also expect the media to start turning on him fairly soon. They’ll be pissed that he’s such a loser and take it out on him.
Where and how? On the west coast there are SA gangs that drew lines they can't cross. Like MS-13. On the east coast, there are Cubans and Puerto Ricans that drew their own lines. Repeatedly burning their own neighborhoods down is not an advancement of their cause.
Does this mean we're going to see George Stephanopoulos practically crying on air again like when Algore lost?
Priceless.
Those are the REAL polls paid for by the candidates, for the candidates. (Not released for public consumption)
They are expensive and no BS mushy questions or "push" questions. They (the candidates) really need to know "whats's what".
I knew we were in trouble in 2006 when Ann Coulter and others were on TV and showed no optimism.
They had seen the "internals".
See post #114.
It was obvious that Kerry wasn’t going to win. However, it was NOTHING like this. Go to that link above and look at ‘this day in 2004’. There’s no comparison.
Like I’ve said, we should refrain from chicken counting. However, we should also acknowledge that things are different this time and there are other roads open to us in states that have historically been closed. We shouldn’t go crazy, but we shouldn’t poo-pooh the idea either.
bump for f’n funny!
I agree. What bugs me about McCain is that he tries real hard to please too many people. He might make some stupid “windfall profits” remark and throw all that goodwill he’s earned out the window.
They need to keep on nailing them on the refineries issue, after the storm has settled.
That's one day for every state! ;-)
Sarah has enough good will to go around. She whooped Charlie Gibson’s ass on national television tonight.
-or-
to mangle an old Ann Richards quote,
“Poor, Barack, he can’t help it, he was born with a pig’s foot in his mouth.”
The left is full of evil, violent, sick people.
You know they really are sick, evil and vile aren’t they? It’s almost like exocision right now. I received an email in my mailbox from a Democrat that got on this FreeRepublic and she wrote this MOST ugly vile comments to me about my remark about Oprah not letting Palin on her show. I was in shock...I have been on FreeRepublic since 2004 and never received anything so vile as her comments/remarks and all in capital letters. I guess she was screaming at me. Anyway, I guess getting on here and letting us have it is a last ditch frustration as I think, like this article written the handwriting is on the wall....and the Dems are smelling defeat. I have to say there is no one I enjoy more than “them” to be beaten!!
OH the person that wrote me.....michael_dell.....
I want to see MO fall apart......... -I know, be a Christian.....(sigh)..it’s so hard!
Thanks. That’s very helpful.
Yeah, but then you run the risk of some sort of bogus racist charges (soul food, etc.) But it’s a funny line!
Thanks.
We shall see about PA. I still think OH will ultimately go Left.
Is there a FR prediction thread somewhere? Maybe we should all be placing our bets. ;-)
Agreed. More drilling, more refineries, more pipelines, and less talk about so-called “manmade global warming,” and I’ll be happy.
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