Posted on 09/11/2008 9:57:56 PM PDT by comebacknewt
Florida: McCain +8
Ohio: McCain +1
Michigan: McCain +1
Colorado: Obama +3
Nevada: McCain +1
Georgia: McCain +18
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Does anyone think Palin’s performance will hurt us?
I think she did fine but the media will tell us that she wants war with Russia.
Barry Obama has stopped all ads in Georgia and is pulling out his staff there. Georgia is safe.
The electoral map is, more and more, looking like a replay of 2004.
Come November 5th 0dumbo is finished, kaput, as far as Democrat presidential politics are concerned.
I'll say good riddance to the cruddy commie.
Why is CO so off? I would have thought there would be some original thinkers there
On one of the convention nights, a PBS presidential historian, can’t remember his name, he stated that Bush got 15 percent of the black vote in 2004 in Ohio, might have even been higher, maybe 25 percent, any validity to this?
MI is tough because of the black vote in Detroit
it’s hard to beat those numbers
although i did see a poll that had McCain +18 among Macomb and Oakland counties which is a very good sign
If the NRA endorses that should help
still, MI is very tough
the dems are so entrenched there
Those who hated her before will hate her even more. Those who loved her before are still going to love her.
Those who had honest concerns about her didn't get them answered tonight, but they will be tuning in to the debate in October. She still has plenty of time to win them over.
You misread the poll, it is the other way.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
If the people believe all the media says, Obama will win by a landslide.
Georgia was never a battleground state. That was a fantasy.
McCain should campaugn in Detroit, Philly and so on. One reason the Rats win large in big cities (apart from illegals or deads voting) is the lack of conservative choices. I bet the few republicans in Detroit are mostly RINOs.
No wonder he pulled his troops out of Georgia. He is going to need all the money he can get. The media will of course work double time for him trying for an October surprise. He may even try to get rid of Biden and try to take on Hillary, but even that shows what a bad judge and leader he is. I also think any October surprise will be his. I will pray anyway. I never count my chickens . . . until they hatch—especially with these vile types.
Yes Bush got 15% of the black vote in Ohio in 2004. Many think it’s because a constitutional amendment defining marriage as a man and a woman was on the ballot in Ohio that year. Blacks as a group are strongly against same-sex marriage. So there were some blacks who decided to vote for Bush, based on their vote against homosexual marriage, and based on Bush’s support for a federal marriage amendment.
Whether McCain can get near that percent of the black vote this time seems questionable. I don’t know if there are other factors among blacks in Ohio that might make them more likely to support Republicans. With Obama as the nominee, national polls show him getting 95%+ of the black vote nationwide.
you sure have a smart ma :-).
Yes, I think its flipped around.
First presidential debate
Friday, September 26
The University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.
Jim Lehrer
Executive Editor and Anchor, The NewsHour, PBS
Vice presidential debate
Thursday, October 2
Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.
Gwen Ifill
Senior Correspondent, The NewsHour, and Moderator and Managing Editor, Washington Week, PBS
Second presidential debate (town meeting)
Tuesday, October 7
Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.
Tom Brokaw
Special Correspondent, NBC News
Third presidential debate
Wednesday, October 15
Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.
Bob Schieffer
CBS News Chief Washington Correspondent, and Host, Face the Nation
Each debate will begin at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
Format
The format for the debates, announced on November 21, 2007, will be:
— Each debate will have a single moderator and last for 90 minutes.
— In the first and third presidential debates and the vice presidential debate, the candidates will be seated with the moderator at a table.
— One presidential debate will focus primarily on domestic policy and one presidential debate will focus primarily on foreign policy. The second presidential debate will be held as a town meeting in which citizens will pose questions to the candidates. The vice presidential debate will cover both foreign and domestic topics.
— During the first and third presidential debates, and the vice presidential debate, the time will be divided into eight, ten-minute segments. The moderator will introduce each segment with an issue on which each candidate will comment, after which the moderator will facilitate further discussion of the issue, including direct exchange between the candidates for the balance of that segment.
— The participants in the town meeting will pose their questions to the candidates after reviewing their questions with the moderator for the sole purpose of avoiding duplication. The participants will be chosen by the Gallup Organization and will be undecided voters from the Nashville, Tenn. standard metropolitan statistical area. During the town meeting, the moderator has discretion to use questions submitted by Internet.
— Time at the end of the final presidential debate will be reserved for closing statements.
Participants The CPD 2008 Candidate Selection Criteria, announced on November 21, 2007, will be the exclusive means of determining the candidates to be invited to participate in the debates.
Colorado is a state the Dems have been targetting to get blue, blue, blue for the past several years.
That state could be a problem.
The electoral map is much smaller this year. There are only 4 possible states Bush won in 2004 that Obama can flip: Iowa (7 EV, voted for Gore in 2000), New Mexico (5 EV, voted for Gore in 2000), Nevada (5 EV, has been trending Dem, culturally liberal), Colorado (9 EV, has been trending Dem, culturally liberal).
The other blue states are safe: Florida has been trending GOP, Ohio is basically a Republican state and McCain/Palin, as reformers, don’t suffer there as other Repubs would since the recent scandals which got the Republicans booted out. Virginia and NC were not really in play but the recent revival of hostilities in the culture war means they’ll never vote for Obama.
That gives Obama 278, 9 more than he needs (a 269-269 tie goes to Obama since the Dems control 27 House delegations). So Obama absolutely must win 3 of those 4 states.
McCain is competitive in 3.5 blue states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire (which went for Bush in 2000 and which he has won twice in primaries) and Maine’s 2nd CD (Northern part of the state, ME and NE are the two states which split their EVs). If he wins MI or PA (or, as a longshot, WA because of anomalously high GOP turnout by voters still mad at the 2004 Gregoire theft), it’s over. If he wins Maine 2, then Obama’s 3 states must include Colorado. If he wins NH, then Obama’s 3 states must include Colorado and Iowa. If he wins both Maine 2 and NH, then Obama must win all 4 states.
Obama’s campaign should focus on winning CO, NV, and NM (IA is mostly in the bag) and holding MI and PA.
McCain has 3 potential ways to win: flip PA (a better shot than MI), hold CO and flip NH or ME2, hold NM+NV. All 3 are reasonable strategies, but he will have enough cash to pursue all of them. His fundraising disadvantage is not so big this year with so few states in play.
— Spouse of heartwood (aka VeritatisSplendor)
If McCain takes Florida Ohio AND Michigan Barry Hussein's Election night will get real sad real early.
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