Posted on 09/11/2008 5:55:32 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Since February I have been saying that Barack Obama would get crushed in this year’s presidential election. … The signs of trouble for the Democrats have always been there…
….Today it is no longer “wishful thinking” or “proof you have been smoking something” to say John McCain will crush Barack Obama.
..here are the numbers that say it is over..
To win Obama must get these numbers with these groups:
..women, he needs at least plus 7. He is down 12.
White males needs at least 36%. If he gets 30% he will be lucky
Catholics: needs 50%. He is down 59/36.
Evangelicals: needs 71%. He is running against an Evangelical and has nothing to offer these Christian voters.
Jewish vote: needs 80%. He is at 57%.
Black vote: needs 95%. Zogby says he has “lost support” among Black voters.
Hispanic vote: needs 65%. The only polls available show he is at 65% so that won’t help, it will only slow the bleeding.
Democrat base support: needs 92%. He is at 86%.
Independents: needs 49%. He is losing 52/37.
This one is over. On Monday September 29, 2008 at about 5 PM when the last weekend polls come in, the numbers will spell doom for the Democrats. On September 30, 2008 the McCain Palin campaign must plan on switching gears and start asking for votes to give them a Republican Congress. It could keep the margin down and keep us safe from the Democrats for another two years.
..there will only be four elected Democrats who will be happy on Nov. 5, the Clintons, George McGovern and Walter Mondale because Barack Obama will take them off the hook as having taken the worse beatings in history
What is encouraging is that GOP congressman are starting to ride the coat tails of McCain Palin.
Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Rassmussen’s new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming.
hope they are good.
Yeah, and when the election workers give triple ballots to the registered Dem voters, like they did in Florida; who knows what the “turnout” will be???
Add to that, with many states using paperless voting (who ever thought up that BRIGHT idea??/s) the potential for fraud is enormous!!
Hillary might be back. The DEMS first rule is their are not rules.
I too knew it was over once he secured the nomination.
It was clear that the “brains”, the “deciders” at the DNC
had fatally decided to roll the dice on “the new guy” and call an end to the hazardous Clinton Era. Mighta had a chance, if they’d played it right and at least made a show of inviting Hillary on the ticket as VEEP, whether she was interested in the slot , or not. But THEN to top it off, Obama picks Biden, who is the epitome of the Beltway status quo, and THEN, McCain picks Palin, possibly the most brilliant and risky move I have ever seen in AMerican Politics, and THAT was the coup de grace. If the DNC had decided at the outset to let Hillary have her day, and pushed her, Obama would be history,and if Hillary had made an exciting VEEP pick, and McCain a safe and stupid one, Hillary might have actually had a chance to be President/
As it turned out Mc Cain made the brilliant pick, and Obama the stupid one, and it’s all downhill from here. I have been saying, even BEFORE Palin, that McCain would win AT LEAST 55/45. Now it will be 60/40. You heard it here first, and last. McCain got a shot of political Viagra, and the results are visible every day, and he just may not turn out to be the old John McCain after all. I think Sarah will have an energizing effect on him too.
......and never, never, ever underestimate Chicago politics....which plays down and dirty.....it’s not called the “windy” city for nothing.....
The electoral college (as opposed to popular vote) is still the way to go but we need to amend the Constitution to allow states to split their electoral votes by county.
Remember, the electoral college was designed to keep the big cities (which at the time was Boston, New York and Philadelphia) from having an unfair advantage over rural areas in choosing the president. Due to the massive populations of some of our larger states (California, New York, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, etc.), they now have the very unfair advantage our founding fathers were trying to protect us from.
By Super Tuesday 2004, Kerry was essentially the unanimous Demcorat pick.
Gore was obviously anointed from the beginning in 2000.
In 2008, it was down to the wire and the Democrats were basically evenly split into Clinton and anti-Clinton camps.
Obama is young, has legions of admirers and true believers among Democrats and there are many, many Democrats who think that 20 years of the Clintons running the party is enough.
If Clinton gets the nod in 2012 despite strong opposition from the Obama people and she loses, then the Democrats may split into two factions until one definitely wins by taking the Presidency.
The outcome of this election will determine national politics for the next twelve years, probably the next 20.
That’s right, he is from Chicago so you have to factor in the dead, the entire prison system, communist China (though they are still disgruntled about Hillary not getting the nomination), cats, dogs and a wide variety of RATS.
I cannot be this optimistic - blacks will vote for Obama (higher than the % listed)and Obama will still win the left and northeast coastal states with the high number of electoral votes.
Both candidates favor Amnesty so it depends on Congress. With Amnesty, politics is changed permanently- no more Republicans.
No amendment necessary. States can allocate their electoral votes any way they want. Maine and Nebraska use congressional districts plus an at large vote for who wins the state.
Yup... with a bad McCain pick and a good Hillary pick for VP... we would have been dreading election day right now.
This fails to could the double votes, the dead votes and the vote for a pack of smokes votes.
Far from a dumb system, the Electoral College embodies the essence of our Republic -- and separates our form of government from those of unstable democracies.
The people are directly represented in the House of Representatives on a proportional basis. The States are represented in the Senate, where each state has equal standing. The President of the United States is just that -- the president of the States -- and is chosen by the States in a formula that balances the direct will of the people (electors are distributed by population, as in the House of Representatives) and the will of the States (winner takes all in each state). The separate wills of the People and their States are represented in the two Houses of Congress, and are balanced against each other in the States' election of their President. It is actually quite brilliant.
[Note: The 17th Amendment detrimentally altered this balance by introducing the popular election of Senators. Prior to 1914, Senators were elected by state legislatures to represent the States as the Founders had envisioned and had stipulated in the Constitution. We can thank the "Progressives" for that debasement of our balanced republican system.]
The Electoral College may be difficult for some to understand or appreciate, but it is just another example of the Founders' wisdom in protecting us from the instability and ruinous perils of pure democracy. And never forget why Democracy is to be feared: Democracy is best defined as three wolves and a sheep voting on what's for dinner!
It was a stroke of genius to have that embedded in the constitution.
Small state minimum electoral votes 3, 1 determined by population + 2.
Large state no more than 2 + number of representatives determined by population.
If popular vote were the only determination you would never see campaigning in small states.
And of course in 2000 it was Al Gore who was attempting to steal the election not George Bush.
Don’t see any way Hillary! would step into this election. Of all the negative things you can say about herself, she is not stoopid!
Why? He financed the Democrat and the Republican nominees. He's got his bases covered.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.