Posted on 09/10/2008 11:11:41 AM PDT by Schumpeter
The Obama campaign seems to have experienced a "Minsky Moment." That, as any financial bubblologist worth his weight in tulips knows, is the particular point in time when no more "greater fools" can be found to support a bubble and a Great Deflation finally begins. Sssssss. (The financial phenomenon is named after economist Hyman Minksy.)
Now Obama's Minsky Moment is morphing into the McCain Moment. The evidence? Here goes: 1) The final 10 national polls in June had Barack Obama up by an average of 7 percentage points. The past eight polls this month have John McCain up by a bit more than 2 points, according to RealClearPolitics. 2) Right around the same time that Obama's polling lead was entering landslide territory in June, his odds of victory over at the Intrade betting markets were hovering at a sky-high 70 percent. Today, Obama's chances are right around 50-50 vs. McCain. 3) And now, according to a New York Times story yesterday, the deluge of donations has started drying up: "Pushing a fundraiser later this month, a finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of its national finance committee, calling their recent efforts 'extremely anemic.'"
Speculative bubbles have come in many different varieties: flowers, railway shares, Florida property, Beanie Babies, comic books, technology stocks, exurb McMansions. Does Candidate Obama qualify? Well, the candidate does sound a bit like a lot of the hot Internet companies back in the late 1990s. Not much of a track record. Lots of media hype. Parabolic ascent. And now a stomach-dropping decline.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
No legitimate birth certificate, no legitimate SSS registration, no Columbia records, no Harvard records, no Harvard thesis, no CAC records, no law firm records, no Illinois state senate records, no medical records.....
It doesn't have to be sustained forever. Just two more months. The timing of this is perfect. Palin can burn hotter than a nuclear reactor core for the next eight weeks without being able to overload the America's fad threshold. Every inch of dare I say, celebrity, that she steals from Obama cripples him.
As Sun Tzu said, "One bushel of the enemy's provisions is worth twenty of our own". By cutting into Obama's resources, it weakens him and strengthens us. Both in reality and in perception.
Besides, worst case, if the country is sick to death of her by mid November, she can take the next two months off and lay low. In this regard, McCain's timing was perfect. She started a tsunami, but the water won't settle until after the election.
Sounds to me like the media got too far ahead of this thing and inflated Obama’s value far beyond his true worth and now they are confused as to why everybody aren’t bringing up the rear.
First the money donations dry-up; then the votes.
The MSM rats are looking for safe egress from the ship. This whole campaign has been media driven but now they have to evaluate the wisdom of betting it all on an Obama victory.
Obamadotcom.
On the other hand, Sarah Palin has the hot new hit “This Pitbull Wears Liptsick.” Even though the professional critics are panning it as trite, it’s going nuts on the charts. And, the best part; it’s not being overplayed on the radio. She has not appeared a lot on talking head shows, etc..., since the convention. Good. Keep the supply restricted, it will keep demand up and prolong the time at the top of the charts.
FREAKING UNBELIEVABLY HILARIOUS!
Welfare and entitlement recipients can expend only so much of their hard-gotten income and there’s just not enough Oprah’s to sustain a protracted campaign. It appears Obama’s being made to take a backseat to other “necessities”.
The bubble was empty, which most of us could see from the beginning. The rise and fall of Obama was the direct result of the RAT party being taken over by the far left.
That is the million dollar question.
We are in very strong position right now. I really like our chances come November, but at this point it is still anybody's contest.
It is definitely no time to get complacent.
This was a point Rudy made brilliantly in a post-speech interview with Andrea Mitchell.
Andrea asked him if he hadn’t been just a little bit hesitant to tear into Obambi as he did in his speech, considering that Obambi “got 18 million votes.”
Rudy said heck no! He explained: Obambi got 18M votes, but so did Hillary. He said Obambi never won the big states and barely won the states he did win. He contrasted that with John McCain who, he said, won the big states and mostly won big or very big over his primary opponents.
The bottom line, Rudy said, was that Obambi had barely squeaked into the nomination. He said, “The Democrats have a nominee whom only half the party voted for.” In short, that made Obambi weak from the get-go and he, Rudy, had no pause at all about going in for the kill.
I thInk the Obama rise was partly anti-Hillary sentiment, and partly the excitement oVER a candidate coming out of nowhere and defeating the candidate who everyone assumed could not be beaten. Now that all the excitement has passed they are looking at hIm more carefully and discovering he is an empty suit.
I would not be surprised if Obama, in a panic, replaces Biden on the ticket with Hillary. He may have approached her already. Hopefully, her answer will be Shove It!
My analogy is that we know there is a beautifully wrapped present under the tree and we’re waiting to see what is inside. I personally think we’ll like the substance over the wrapping.
True, they’ve been telling us how stupid we would be not to vote for him for so long that they could hear no opposition. They’re just like the Europeans telling us if we don’t elect this commie that the world will be upset.
That & Hillary’s “money people” are sitting this one out. I wonder how much of the money Obama has raised thus far has already been spent in the hard fought primary battle. The fundraising agreement between Obama & Hillary reportedly collapsed.
Otherwise known as the pet rock fad.
I know I am showing my age but does anyone else remember pet rocks?
The sold like hotcakes for about 6 months. They didn’t do anything and weren’t even funny. Rocks with faces painted on them. they were overpriced but all the kids had to have pet rock.
Then 6 months no one could give them away. The store was giving the kids free pet rocks with the purchase of a slinky.
So Obama is a pet rock and Sarah Palin is a Slinky.
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