Do you really think it’s a shift and not a bounce?
I hope so.
I wonder why Rasmussen has them so close still.
“I wonder why Rasmussen has them so close still.”
They have their head up their a@@ ?
I tend to prefer Rass’s method.
The reason it’s showing slightly depressed numbers is because the other polling units adjust for enthusiasm change in the electorate; More are self identifying as Republicans since the Palin pick. Rass adjusts his poll for party identification every few months. This has a tendency to protect the poll of huge swings that evaporate in a matter of days.
The question is whether this enthusiasm can be sustained. If it is, then party identification will need to be adjusted and Rass will probably do so if a month’s data indicates the change is necessary.
My gut tells me it’s split about 50/50 with McCain holding a slight lead. I think the debates will be critical. M/P won the convention battle. Debates are the second half.
If Palin/McCain Do well there and if Obama has a subpar performance in at least one then the edge is to M/P in this election.