I tend to prefer Rass’s method.
The reason it’s showing slightly depressed numbers is because the other polling units adjust for enthusiasm change in the electorate; More are self identifying as Republicans since the Palin pick. Rass adjusts his poll for party identification every few months. This has a tendency to protect the poll of huge swings that evaporate in a matter of days.
The question is whether this enthusiasm can be sustained. If it is, then party identification will need to be adjusted and Rass will probably do so if a month’s data indicates the change is necessary.
My gut tells me it’s split about 50/50 with McCain holding a slight lead. I think the debates will be critical. M/P won the convention battle. Debates are the second half.
If Palin/McCain Do well there and if Obama has a subpar performance in at least one then the edge is to M/P in this election.
No matter how enthusiastic the young crowd is on the dem side they have historically never shown up at the polls. Secondly, the dem party is built on racism, everything they have ever done has been designed to keep the blacks down and voting dem. That older dem voter 50 and older their most loyal voter is not going to show at the polls for Obama, same goes supposedly for the Hispanic population, and definitely for the Asian's having a black problem then Arab population is very racist but he does have an islamic upbringing on his side so that will be an interesting one to watch, so will the Jewish vote be interesting to watch.
Basically I thought this was a toss up election until Palin, now you have excited a base that will show in huge numbers to the polls against the other party's depressed voters except for their youth crowd (who do not show) and the wacko crowd.