No matter how enthusiastic the young crowd is on the dem side they have historically never shown up at the polls. Secondly, the dem party is built on racism, everything they have ever done has been designed to keep the blacks down and voting dem. That older dem voter 50 and older their most loyal voter is not going to show at the polls for Obama, same goes supposedly for the Hispanic population, and definitely for the Asian's having a black problem then Arab population is very racist but he does have an islamic upbringing on his side so that will be an interesting one to watch, so will the Jewish vote be interesting to watch.
Basically I thought this was a toss up election until Palin, now you have excited a base that will show in huge numbers to the polls against the other party's depressed voters except for their youth crowd (who do not show) and the wacko crowd.
Good analysis.