Posted on 09/10/2008 6:39:19 AM PDT by Tolik
Your comment focuses on what may or may not have been decrypted in time to inform US military leaders.
"The Myth of Pearl Harbor" does not depend on that argument at all. Instead, it focuses on what leaders like Roosevelt, Marshall and Churchill said and did in the months, weeks and days before December 7, 1941.
I'm satisfied that they fully expected a Japanese attack, and may even have known pretty well where and when.
By the way, the author George Victor is not ant-Roosevelt, far from it. He considers FDR a brilliant strategist, whose leadership brought victory in history's greatest war (55+ million dead) with a minimum cost in American lives.
My own opinion is that FDR deliberately "provoked" the Japanese by appearing weak while talking tough.
Again, I recommend the book. It may yet open your eyes and change your mind.
I think the only real debate since 12/7/41 has been: did FDR and Marshall know in advance of the coming Japanese attack, and if so, did they adequately warn the Pearl Harbor commanders? And if the commanders were warned, did they respond appropriately?
Some things are known beyond dispute. For example, Short and Kimmel did receive a "war warning" in the weeks before December 7, but responded in ways that afterward seem ridiculous. Understanding how and why this happened helps explain "what FDR knew, and when did he know it."
As for the tin foil hats, well, yes, we do have a few of those. But in every case I've seen, wiser voices step in to set the record straight. In this particular case, the record is a good deal more complex than implied by the words, "sneak attack."
And yet, we still have the idea at the core of it all that FDR believed the Congress would not declare war without a devestating defeat and major loss of life.
That alone requires a Reynolds Wrap beannie.
No one knew that Japanese torpedoes would function in Pearl Harbor, which was believed too shallow to defend against the threat.
The extent of the success of the Japanese attack need not have been predicted for the “Roosevelt knew” hypothesis to be entertained, only the likelihood that Roosevelt may have wished for the Japanese clearly to strike first.
Thanks.
bttt
So, if he "knew" then he could have gone to Congress with evidence of a Japanese attack, but didn't do so. Do you really think that makes sense?
Tell you what...Go ahead and post here any actual evidence you have that FDR knew in advance that the Japanese planned to attack Pearl Harbor. Let's see it.
And how would they have done so without intel that would itself be a smoking gun?
You misunderstand me; it is not my position that Roosevelt knew the Japanese had targeted Pearl Harbor, only that he knew a Japanese military response against the U.S. was approaching certainty.
I would argue that he discounted the likelihood of an attack on Pearl Harbor, since it was believed to be too shallow for Japanese torpedo attack. Almost all the planning focused on the premise that the initial Japanese attack would fall on the Philippines, which is why MacArthur was ordered to prepare for such an attack.
You are accusing Short and Kimmel of murdering 3,000 of their men. You need to have some serious evidence to back such a thing up.
I particularly enjoy the ideaof the "expected surprise attack" that wouldn't have been a surprise, because Japan's declaration of war was supposed to be delivered before the bombs started falling.
And yet he did not do so. How does that fit with the conspiracy theory?
I'll rephrase my earlier question: Go ahead and post here any actual evidence you have that FDR knew in advance that we would be attacked by the Japanese.
Most important, no one . . . NO ONE . . . thought a Japanese fleet would dare cross the ocean to engage the 7th fleet head on. Remember, they firmly believed the carriers would be there right up until the very last intel came in from a spy saying the carriers were out. Such a fight against the ships in harbor, PLUS the three carriers, would have been incredibly damaging for the Japanese. Which is why it worked---it was so phenomenally audacious that no one ever expected it.
On November 27, a telegram was sent to Pacific commanders notifying them that negotiations with the Japanese had evidently collapsed, and that hostilities were possible, but if they did occur, Japan should be seen to act first.
MacArthur additionally received orders that in the event of hostilities the Orange Plan should be followed. He, however had his own ideas, and even after notified of the attack on Pearl Harbor, made no moves to implement the Orange Plan for the Philippines, preferring fatally to believe that the Filipino and American forces could repel the Japanese from their initial landing zones.
MacArthur’s failure to prepare for an attack indicates nothing other than that MacArthur thought he knew better than Washington.
Yes, hostilites were possible. That doesn’t mean FDR knew anything. Any time you can no longer negotiate with a militaristic power you must prepare for hostilities.
Where is the evidence that FDR knew something that he failed to pass on to our fighting men for their preparedness?
100% dead on.
Of course, that’s why you get paid to do history. :-)
Yes, hostilites were possible. That doesn’t mean FDR knew anything. Any time you can no longer negotiate with a militaristic power you must prepare for hostilities.
Where is the evidence that FDR knew something that he failed to pass on to our fighting men for their preparedness?
Again, I’m not arguing Roosevelt held anything back, just that the Japanese attack was the reasonable person’s expected outcome of the situation.
Do you not know the history of that time?
You don't remember that in 1940, FDR ran for reelection to his third term, and what did he solemnly promise the American people?
Come on! You should be able to repeat this by heart:
"I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again and again; your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars."
- FDR, Speech in Boston, October 30, 1940.
Here's another along that same vein:
"And I can cite to you many, many other examples of rumors that have been started in the same rumor factory, all of them untrue, but every one of them tending to make people believe that this country is going to war.
Your President says this country is not going to war."
FDR - Remarks at Buffalo, New York November 2, 1940
There are a number of examples of German U-boats sinking US ships in the Atlantic, which got Roosevelt all excited, but Congress was unmoved.
Most important point: there is no evidence -- zero, zip, nada -- that FDR or any other American, expected the massive damage that Japanese were able to inflict on Dec 7.
So, I think they expected some kind of attack, but not what they got.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.