Most important, no one . . . NO ONE . . . thought a Japanese fleet would dare cross the ocean to engage the 7th fleet head on. Remember, they firmly believed the carriers would be there right up until the very last intel came in from a spy saying the carriers were out. Such a fight against the ships in harbor, PLUS the three carriers, would have been incredibly damaging for the Japanese. Which is why it worked---it was so phenomenally audacious that no one ever expected it.
100% dead on.
Of course, that’s why you get paid to do history. :-)