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Gallup: McCain bounce coming from independents and Democrats
hotair.com ^ | September 9, 2008 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 09/09/2008 11:51:19 AM PDT by Free ThinkerNY

Conventional wisdom, if you’ll pardon the pun, held that John McCain’s bounce this week came from a party that suddenly discovered enthusiasm from its base. Gallup’s internals from its daily tracking poll tell a completely different story. His bounce comes from a significant shift among independents and even some Democrats:

John McCain’s 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

By contrast, Democrats’ support for McCain rose 5 percentage points over the GOP convention period, from 9% to 14%, while Republicans’ already-high support stayed about the same.

The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters’ general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates. Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48% of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46%, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.


(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; elections; mccain; mccainpalin
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1 posted on 09/09/2008 11:54:03 AM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
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To: Free ThinkerNY
What seems to be overlooked in this article but is mentioned elsewhere is that the spread between DEM and GOP voter affiliation is decreasing (GOP now closer to DEM). That, in addition to the listed percentages, bode well for McCain-Palin if they can hold them 'til Election Day.
2 posted on 09/09/2008 11:56:36 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Free ThinkerNY

I wish that Gallup would’ve done a poll to see how the Communist Party USA endorsement of Barack Obama as the Democrat candidate affected his standing in the national election.

How many Communists crossed an aisle to vote Democrat?
How many Democrats crossed an aisle to vote Republican, realizing this is NOT granddaddy’s DNC?


3 posted on 09/09/2008 11:57:22 AM PDT by weegee (Better to support a pitbull in lipstick than to be in a party that is putting lipstick on a pig.)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
"....a significant shift among independents and even some Democrats...."

And they have no reason to turn back.

(Question:
On election day, in the privacy of the voting booth - does Hillary pull the lever for Obama, or McCain?)

4 posted on 09/09/2008 11:57:50 AM PDT by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: Free ThinkerNY
Palin has made McCain attractive to the swing voters.

If McCain-Palin keep up their plain-talk attacks on Dem failed policies/candidates, Obama is toast. This could be a blowout.

5 posted on 09/09/2008 11:57:58 AM PDT by DakotaGator
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To: Free ThinkerNY

IF this is accurate, then it’s game over.


6 posted on 09/09/2008 11:57:59 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Free ThinkerNY

The Republican base has gone from “I’m going to hold my nose and vote for McCain” to “I’d crawl across broken glass to vote for Governor Palin and the old guy”.

Meanwhile, Independents and Reagan Democrats actually have someone to vote for.


7 posted on 09/09/2008 11:58:16 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Democrats are Intimidated by Strong Women.)
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To: CatOwner

And how many Republicans who switched to “Independent” but now are coming back “home” due to Palin.


8 posted on 09/09/2008 11:58:44 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

This is awesome news. Iraq was Obama’s main issue going in. It is now succeeding and largely because of McCain’s support of the surge. The rats biggest mistake all along has been running against Bush — except Bush isn’t running. Bad stratergy.


9 posted on 09/09/2008 11:59:57 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: ConservativeDude
What the internals say is what I thought when the convention ended Thursday night... that McCain closed the sale with the American people. Its going to be awfully tough for Obama to ask Americans to give him another look... and he's not the best debater out there.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

10 posted on 09/09/2008 12:02:30 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: jersey117

As an original Reagan Democrat, (read my FR profile) I think this new generation of crossovers are going to tower over us Reagan Democrats in numbers. Big Time!
Think about it. They got the web, we didn’t, They have a way to communicate with each other and share information at lightening speedr, we didn’t. They have talk radio, we didn’t.


11 posted on 09/09/2008 12:04:34 PM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: Free ThinkerNY

bookmark


12 posted on 09/09/2008 12:10:22 PM PDT by GOP Poet
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To: Free ThinkerNY
This may hold Republican losses in the House and Senate to a minimum. McCain may be able to develop a coalition of conservative Republicans and blue-dog Democrats and have a working majority in some cases
13 posted on 09/09/2008 12:11:58 PM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: ConservativeDude; goldstategop
IF this is accurate, then it’s game over.

No! No! No! No! and again I say NO!

Sure, from an analytical viewpoint it certainly looks like if this trend holds McCain has it wrapped up. But we can't be talking like that.

We need to work our clymers off until the election is certified.

For one thing, remember the electoral college and recognize the fact that we could be on the side of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college.

And most of all, never, ever underestimate the evil tricks and voter fraud that is already coming from the left.

I'm just sayin'...

14 posted on 09/09/2008 12:16:23 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (He had me at Hanoi. McCain-Palin '08)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

The BIG MAC ATTACK has begun...


15 posted on 09/09/2008 12:17:12 PM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: Maine Mariner

I think the American people are finally waking up from ingesting too much kool-aid and the MSM has helped them! THEY have also played a role in this...people are sick of the liberal media trying to shove a POTUS we don’t want down our throats! McCain did close the deal...he is an honest man, a real hero and no one can deny that. It makes me sick to hear of Obamanation talking about Iraq when he has only been there what? Twice ever? THAT makes him an authority?? He even looked foolish against Bill O’Reilly the other night. I hear tonight gets more heated as well. It is about time he is questioned on his radical associations.


16 posted on 09/09/2008 12:17:16 PM PDT by LegalEagle61 (If you are going to burn our flag, please make sure you are wearing it when you do!)
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To: Free ThinkerNY

OUCH! Thats gonna leave a mark.


17 posted on 09/09/2008 12:25:39 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: All

It is NOT game over.

The Democrats are not going to lay down, and the campaign team that defeated Hillary Clinton are not stupid.

They will IMMEDIATELY seek to push Sarah Palin’s image as far to the right as possible, making her unpalatable to centrist women.

This Must Not Be Allowed.

Do not dwell on how conservative she is. Find her centrist aspects and trumpet them. She is the mother of a special needs child and she will be a personal advocate for such programs. She should talk about THOSE. It is a marvelous credential for health care discussion.

In general, people, recalibrate your brains. The red meat conservative issues are not to be hers. She is the path to centrist women voters and they are the bulk of the electorate. Don’t force them back towards the hyper liberal now talking about “getting tough with Iran” and “not rescinding the Bush tax cuts” to move himself to the center.

It is McCain/Palin who must deny them the center, and that may mean we don’t get to chew on right wing red meat statements on a daily basis. Don’t worry about it. The fight is for the center, like all chess games.


18 posted on 09/09/2008 12:30:17 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Corin Stormhands

but you have to understand that people will only work hard to support mccain/palin if they think they have a winning chance.

If McCain acted like a loser, if he appeared on olbermann and said the surge was a failure, that would turn off his supporters.


19 posted on 09/09/2008 12:40:44 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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To: Owen

wink wink

ok ok we get it


20 posted on 09/09/2008 12:42:44 PM PDT by ari-freedom (We never hide from history. We make history!)
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