The trend is our friend.
Also, isn’t 500 a small sample?
IDK.
Lou Dobbs did a piece on voter fraud this evening and we should be very afraid of what ACORN is doing. Why we continue to avoid a national I.D. is beyond me. We could very well lose this election because of fraud.
I am getting a little more positive about some of the state polls than I was a little while ago, and here's why:
The better pollsters are calculating their polls (adjusted numbers) based on party ID/Voter registration. The Dems have had a large advantage in new voter registration in the past few years (GOP actually lost some). So the numbers look better for Democrats in that respect.
BUT.....
New voters do not automatically amount to 100% turnout from those new voters — much less 100% Dem vote from those who do turn out. This would be the necessary return to justify an exact adjustment in the polling numbers. More likely, many of them will turn out to vote Dem, a small amount McCain, and a good number not at all. Thus, the poll adjustment for the new registration numbers is likely to taint the poll a slight bit to Obama.
This was the new voter problem that Zogby and Rasmussen were talking about last election - which made it hard to pinpoint turnout vs. registration accurately, and led to a statistical underestimating of GOP vote percentage.
In short, not all newly registered voters by Dems will turn out, and not all who turn out will vote Obama. Many will - but not all, which will artificially taint the polls ever so slightly in Obama’s favor vs. actual results on Election Night.
I think that CO is going to be tough to keep - but for the first time ever, I actually think Michigan might actually be in play, in part because of Kwame and the general disgust with the Dem machine in the suburbs.