Virginia
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
Florida
McCain 48%
Obama 48%
Colorado
Obama 49%
McCain 46%
Pennsylvania
Obama 47%
McCain 45%
September 7, 2008
500 likely voters
MoE +/- 4.5%
Virginia and Ohio give one cause to be optimistic. Unless I underestimated the demographic shift in FL and CO, these numbers don’t add up. Generally, if Ohio is tied we’re up by 3 in Florida and five in Colorado.
Palin could hurt some in Florida with all the ‘she supported Buchanan’ smear.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Rasmussen:
“While Obama is ahead, McCain is viewed more positively. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Colorado voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican while 54% say the same about the Democratic hopeful.”
This tells us little. With a 4.5 MOE the FL result could be McCain 52.5 Obama 43.5 or vice versa. OH is the only result that really leans strongly either way and is rather heartening. The rest are well within the MOE.
These will help paint a picture though, when we combine them with other polls. For instance SurveyUSA just came out with a VA poll that has the exact same result: 49-47 Mac. I love SUSA so it seems we have a close race in VA on our hands with a slight advantage. I want to see at least 3 polls before I really start deciding where it’s at though.
With Mac up about 3 in the RCP average I have to say I was hoping CO and VA would start to move towards our column due to their red nature. Lets see what happens over the next 10 days or so.
Here’s the problem with polling for this election...they are not taking into consideration all the young voters ..NOW, I know historically young voters don’t show up. But this year will be different, and even if just a percentage of these young (foolish) voters show up, it could effect this election. That’s why we need EVERYONE to get off their butts and get moving!
Man, that’s a high margin of error. Basically what I see is a surprising margin in Ohio and then a toss-up in all of the other states. I think I’ll wait for a poll with a bigger sample or some very distinct trends before I take things too seriously. There’s also Mr. Bradley and his Wonderful, Magical, Fantasmagorical Effect...
Obama has a colorado firewall strategy.
The wow is PA. If PA goes to McCain it is going to be an early night.
I thought McCain was leading in FL.
Ouch, Obamaramadingaling must be staining his silk boxers.
Rasmussen like all pollsters and all polls are very overrated and are not capturing the very hard reality in this election, a reality that the media and pollsters do not want to talk about it, a reality that makes it impossible for Obama to win the elections. The reality is that 20% of the democrats are racists who will not vote for a black person under any circumstances. The democrat party is the home of racists in America, whether they are whites, blacks, or Hispanics.
Obama: “If they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby.”
Wow, Ohio shows McCain pulling ahead by a 51% to 44% margin. If that lead gets any bigger, it will be out of Obama’s reach.
If things stay the same McCain/Palin win.
If things go as I predict, McCain/Palin get stronger and potentially win HUGE.