let’s not get cocky!
Change the title, the bounce is of SIX points:
“Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.”
All other things being equal, the Democrat nominee should have a double digit lead in the polls at this point.
It’s a measure of Obama’s serious weakness as a candidate that he’s actually behind right now.
It’s unlikely to get better for Obama. The better-known his background and positions have become, the less people like him.
McCain/Palin have to keep hammering at his record and intentions. That approach is a winner.
or add “McCain post-Convention Bounce better than Obama’s”
This is very similar to the bounce coming out of the 2004 GOP convention if I recall.
This race has been recast. The bloom is off the Obama rose and he will have to go really negative which just puts him in the role of another Kerry. If we hold our own in the debates, and we should, this election could be ours.
This is amazing in that this poll had it 50-42 Obama just 6 days ago. This is a 13 point move for McCain/Palin.
Sen. McCain, you had me at “Sarah Palin”.
This isn’t going to last, not at this level, this is like a super ball bouncing. It’s very good news though, once things settle down it will be within the margin of error, but the opportunities for Obama to move up are going to be limited.
Obama can’t make another silver-tongued speech and get a ton of press, he’s just got the debates, and his speech-making skills will make it difficult for his campaign to lower expectations.
McCain/Palin are in very good shape, though probably not as good of shape as this poll would indicate (I’m guessing it’ll be a 2-point race by a week from now).
What do all these polls of “Battleground States on RCP have in common?
Battleground States — Obama — McCain — Spread
Colorado-—————— 45.2 — 44.8 —NObama +0.4
Nevada——————— 44.3 — 45.3 —McCain +1.0
Michigan-—————— 45.3 — 42.0 —NObama +3.3
Ohio———————— 44.0 — 44.6 —McCain +0.6
Pennsylvania-———— 47.4 — 42.4 —NObama +5.0
Florida-—————— 43.2 — 46.3 —McCain +3.1
ANSWER: All except Nevada were taken before Palin’s speech, -——and in most cases, before her selection.
Gallup’s write-up of today’s poll is very interesting. It noted that Obama consistenly led McCain until the conventions. It then made the following general points.
Gallup noted that in Presidential elections from 1964 — that’s the past 11 elections — the candidate who consistently led their poll before the conventions continued to lead after the conventions. I did some “quick math” and determined that this happened 7 times: 1964, 1966, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1996, and 2004. But not this year.
The four elections where the candidate consistently trailed before the conventions and then took the lead after the conventions were 1980, 1988, 1992, and 2000. In two of these elections (1988 and 1992), the candidate who led after the conventions never again trailed. In one of them —the 1980 election — Gallup had Carter slightly ahead at points both before and after the conventions. And in 2000, Gore led briefly after the two conventions but fell consistently behind again, then caught Dubya in the last weekend before the election and actually ended up winning the popular vote.
Here is my point. In the four cases where the trailing party (McCain this year) took the lead in the Gallup poll after the conventions, that candidate won on to win the popular vote in three of those four elections. And in two of those three elections, that candidate never trailed again. I’m not saying that it’s going to happen again this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.
One last point: this year this may be even more true this year because of the extraordinarily high television ratings for the big speeches in the two conventions. Again, things can change and no two elections are or can be exactly alike.
I guess those styrofoam GREEK TEMPLE pillars weren’t big enough!!.....lol
I’d be optimistic if this were Nov 3rd. At this point, the poll is interesting but unimportant.
Because of vote fraud, McCain/Palin need about a 10% lead.
o First, that Obama had enjoyed a 7-point lead in the polls just after the DNC convention. That is not my recollection. I thought it was a 2 or 3-point lead. I remember thinking, "That is no bounce at all...yippee!" (I didn't really say "yippee!)
o Second, they pointed out the fact that there is a margin of error in the poll. Why don't you hear that when the poll is favorable to their candidate? (Don't answer)
o And third, they said these polls move up and down like "an EKG graph." Also, something you don't you hear when the poll is favorable to their candidate.
There could be bias in the MSM. I'm not quite sure.
Imagine what the numbers would look like if Gallup was honest and not a RAT house organ.
No slack Johnny Mac. Keep driving up his neagtives and get Sarah Palin in fron of as many people as possible.
Bet the toilets are filling up at the Snow-bama campaign.