Gallup Daily: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead

Gallup ^ | September 8, 2008

[notes2005]

PRINCETON, NJ -- John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

[Plutarch]

Bounce? It isn't a bounce until it goes down. McCain's numbers have been affected by the convention and by the Palin pick. The convention is over, but Palin is here to stay. For all Gallup knows, this might be more boost than bounce.

[cookcounty]

What do all these polls of “Battleground States on RCP have in common?

Battleground States — Obama — McCain — Spread

Colorado-—————— 45.2 — 44.8 —NObama +0.4
Nevada——————— 44.3 — 45.3 —McCain +1.0
Michigan-—————— 45.3 — 42.0 —NObama +3.3
Ohio———————— 44.0 — 44.6 —McCain +0.6
Pennsylvania-———— 47.4 — 42.4 —NObama +5.0
Florida-—————— 43.2 — 46.3 —McCain +3.1

ANSWER: All except Nevada were taken before Palin’s speech, -——and in most cases, before her selection.

[kesg]

Gallup’s write-up of today’s poll is very interesting. It noted that Obama consistenly led McCain until the conventions. It then made the following general points.

Gallup noted that in Presidential elections from 1964 — that’s the past 11 elections — the candidate who consistently led their poll before the conventions continued to lead after the conventions. I did some “quick math” and determined that this happened 7 times: 1964, 1966, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1996, and 2004. But not this year.

The four elections where the candidate consistently trailed before the conventions and then took the lead after the conventions were 1980, 1988, 1992, and 2000. In two of these elections (1988 and 1992), the candidate who led after the conventions never again trailed. In one of them —the 1980 election — Gallup had Carter slightly ahead at points both before and after the conventions. And in 2000, Gore led briefly after the two conventions but fell consistently behind again, then caught Dubya in the last weekend before the election and actually ended up winning the popular vote.

Here is my point. In the four cases where the trailing party (McCain this year) took the lead in the Gallup poll after the conventions, that candidate won on to win the popular vote in three of those four elections. And in two of those three elections, that candidate never trailed again. I’m not saying that it’s going to happen again this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it does.

One last point: this year this may be even more true this year because of the extraordinarily high television ratings for the big speeches in the two conventions. Again, things can change and no two elections are or can be exactly alike.

[stockstrader]

I guess those styrofoam GREEK TEMPLE pillars weren’t big enough!!.....lol

[NavyCanDo]

I tuned in Air America this morning and they are going to start getting brutal. No nuclear. You have not seen nothing yet.

Paraphrasing the morning host, “we have to launch everything we have to take Palin out of this election”. The afternoon host Ed Schultz said he will be broadcasting his show soon from Alaska. He’s is setting the stage where he will have an open microphone of Palin haters from Alaska.

I want to tell everyone something. If you recorded Governor Palin’s speech, keep it. If you have a link to it, bookmark it. I will guarantee you we will want to look back at that glorious night to re-energize ourselves after being gut punched several times between now and November. The attacks will continue. Expect them. And they will get worse, they will even go nuclear if they have too. You will feel at times that maybe Obama will pull it off after all. Don’t fall for it. Don’t fall for the rope-a-dope. Stay energized. Stay in the game. We are going to win.

[kesg]

I just saw a new MI poll that has that state essentially tied. Based on the last two elections, MI runs about 6 points more Democratic than the national average. And if McCain is now tied in Michigan, this means that he is now very slightly ahead in Pennsylvania as well, and slightly more comfortably ahead in Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida.

[ScaniaBoy]

Here is something very interesting from the Rasmussen report of today:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

[newzjunkey]

I’d be optimistic if this were Nov 3rd. At this point, the poll is interesting but unimportant.

[Lady Jag]

That’s a beautiful thought.

[library user]

At this point, the poll is interesting but unimportant.

Where can I score some of tha' killa weed ya' sm0kin' man?

[Lady Jag]

[Scarchin]

Han Solo?

;)

[newzjunkey]

He had me at ABO... Anybody But Obama.

[comebacknewt]

The most exciting thing is seeing McCain getting up close to that magical 50% mark.

I'm hoping that the end of the bounce is not yet in sight. I'm not expecting a blowout win, but I can't even describe how good it would feel if we can somehow pull it off.

[doug from upland]

Because of vote fraud, McCain/Palin need about a 10% lead.

[nutmeg]

Every poll I’ve seen shows McCain/Palin in the lead now, except for the one from CNN which says its a tie. No surprise there.

I had to stop by a hospital in Hartford, CT this afternoon... every TV in the waiting rooms was tuned to CNN, unfortunately. They were crowing over the "fact" that the polls are tied after the RNC, then I noticed the small print on the screen: it was only CNN's own poll that was tied. They must have polled their own employees... LOL.

People watching (subjected to, is more like it) CNN's coverage were commenting: "Oh look... the polls are tied!" as if it was a fact. Typical disinformation spewed out by the Commie News Network...

I heard this AM that the USA Today/Gallup poll had McCain up by 10 points.

[DesScorp]

And that's just in registered voters, not likely voters, where Mac has a ten point lead.

But even better than that, USA Today says party identification is down to a one point advantage for the Dems... 48 to 47 percent. If I were a Democrat, that's the number that would scare me sh*tless.

[Rennes Templar]

Don’t worry, the Dims are still plenty freaked that The One lost his convention bounce. Admitting a tie is plenty painful.

[kinsman redeemer]

This morning I heard three things about this on the alphabet networks:

o First, that Obama had enjoyed a 7-point lead in the polls just after the DNC convention. That is not my recollection. I thought it was a 2 or 3-point lead. I remember thinking, "That is no bounce at all...yippee!" (I didn't really say "yippee!)
o Second, they pointed out the fact that there is a margin of error in the poll. Why don't you hear that when the poll is favorable to their candidate? (Don't answer)
o And third, they said these polls move up and down like "an EKG graph." Also, something you don't you hear when the poll is favorable to their candidate.

There could be bias in the MSM. I'm not quite sure.

[Milhous]