RealClearPolitics Electoral College(270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win)say:
Barack Obama 238 (183 Solid 55 Leaning)
John McCain 174 (142 Solid 32 Leaning)
Toss Up 126
I dont when this was last updated.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
Monday, we will see McCain/Palin up in every major poll.
Time will tell if it is just a convention bounce, or a long term trend.
Personally, I think it is a long term trend that actually started right after Obama’s trip to Europe.
For 6 weeks, McCain had been down 3-6 points in every poll. For a few days after the European trip, he jumped up to +8-9 in some polls. Then the downward trend started.
Over the next 6 weeks, McCain slowly chipped away at Obama’s lead. Battleground state polls began to move McCain’s direction.
By the time of the democratic convention, McCain was tied or up slightly in most polls.
Obama looks to have gotten a short lived 6-7 point bounce from the convention. Also it may have been aided by the long Labor day weekend, and hurrican Gustav.
Now McCain looks to be getting a double digit bounce.
Can’t wait to see a new round of state polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
If you want some cool info at RCP, click on each state and check their latest polls. What you will find is several states haven’t been polled since April, or May..... so really...no one knows. It’s fun. Check Maryland. Check California. I think California poll numbers haven’t updated since Feb....