[Red Steel]

Based on the personal anecdotes I've heard in the last week, I'd find anything less had to believe.

I haven't checked yet but every "Likely poll" in the last 2 months has shown Obama losing to McCain - like this one but not as large a spread.

[Red Steel]

“Likely poll” = likely voter poll ;-)

[MillardFillmore]

Incorrect-
McCain got a HUGE Bounce 17 points compared to previous LV Gallup Poll.

many other older LV polls show Obama ahead

some past LV polls from RCP
USAT/Gallup LV (09/05-09/07) 54-44 M+10 (the one we’re discussing)
USAT/Gallup LV (8/30 - 8/31) 43-50 O+7 (previous Gallup LV poll)
ABC/Wash Post LV (8/19 - 8/22) 45-49 O+4
Quinnipiac LV (8/12 - 8/17) 41-46 O+5

Only one previous LV poll from 8/14 to 8/16 from unreliable Zogby has shown a MCC lead of greater than +1

Having said that best to be humble, work hard and use the +4 RV lead.