[surely_you_jest]

OMG! Arugula Boy is wilting! Say it isn’t so!

[Nervous Tick]

[Peelod]

Upstate NY online poll

http”//www.wben.com

With both conventions now over, who are you voting for?
McCain-Palin
86%
Obama-Biden
11%
Won’t Vote
4%
votes: 4407

[lesser_satan]

I suspect the lead will grow until Tuesday or Wednesday. Republicans always do better during the workweek it seems.

[rface]

registered voters

[GOP Poet]

tomorrow will include all three days polled after McCain's speech. That will give us the clearest idea of the impact overall of both he and Sarah's speeches. Can't wait. This is great news though.

[ncalburt]

Should we all meet on Election Day at the MSDNC building and cheer on Keith, Chrissie and Andrea to Jump ??

[Alvin Poon]

Polls are meaningless. It’s the Electoral College. M/P need to get Pennsylvania and keep Ohio and Florida.

[Combat_Liberalism]

How sweet it will be when Obama and Biden drag their sorry butts back to the Senate where they will be presided over by the President of the Senate, Sarah Palin. How sweet it will be...

[commish]

I tend to put very little stock in polls, but this one does contain a lot of things that bode well for Mccain/Palin

1. Gallup tends to oversample dems.
2. The poll is Registered voters, Likely voter totals almost always trend more to the R.
3. this only contains 2 days after McCain’s speech, so the entire convention bounce is not yet included.
4. R’s tend to poll worse on weekends, and this contains a Friday and Saturday.
5. This is without Obama’s “my Muslim Faith” faux Pas.

[truth_seeker]

McCain 48 to 45 among registered voters, means a bigger lead with likely voters.

But there is plenty of time for bombshells, lead changes, etc.

And how a national 3 point lead translates into state by state results is the biggest deal.

I have seen scenarios whereby Obama could lose the national vote, and win the electoral vote, like Bush did.

Finally I believe televised debates have usually impacted Presidential voting quite a bit.

[LS]

"among registered voters"

Any of you following my posts know that I have said two things pretty consistently---and taken a lot of heat for it: a) the polls, mostly, are accurate, and b) you have to know how to read the polls.

"Adult" polls generally poll about four points higher for Dems than do "Likely voters." "Registered voter" polls generally poll two points higher for Dems. In other words, this poll suggests McCain has now 1) reached 50%, and 2) jumped out to a significant lead on Obama.

[tellw]

McCain going from 45 to 48 in one day is HUGE. This is a 3 day AVERAGE of daily surveys. Notice the poll almost *never* moves more than a point in any direction. If he really bumped up from 45 to 48 then he was easily over 50% on the latest day the poll was taken. Unless today’s polling goes bad for McCain he should be over 50% on Gallup tomorrow.

[Salvation]

McCain and Palin will now remain in the lead. Just watch.

[Raycpa]

At this point the less experienced candidate will begin to show. O’Bama is showing signs of panic-going directly against Palin, wanting to debate, flubbing his words. He is under pressure and he will begin to make mistakes. Responses to these mistakes will, if handled by McCain correctly, solidify and increase the lead.