Dems be panicking.
Posted on 09/07/2008 10:06:04 AM PDT by jokyfo
John McCain has moved ahead of Barack Obama in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, 48% to 45%, following last week’s Republican convention. This is McCain’s best showing since May.More ...
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Who on FNC? Not that it matters, but the Novak report indicated McCain would take the lead as well.
We are waiting really for the fully adjusted results on Tue/Wed. Then we go from there.
Plus there is a theory which says that weekend polls favors dems since republicans are richer and have bigger families and they are out doing errands and maybe traveling so they are not home to be polled.
Could it be that republicans actually earn their living so they have more money by working their tales off during the week~!! instead of taking gov handouts- and are out on the weekend grocery shopping and taking care of their families!
40 days of Prayer and fasting to end abortion
Sept 24-Nov 2 http://www.40daysforlife.com/splash.cfm
Dems be panicking.
There is some evidence that whoever leads mid-September wins. Period.
“If I was an incurable cynic, I would start wondering if the shadow powers in the Democratic party didn’t deliberately select Joe Biden — Delaware Senator for life — to take a dive.”
Karl Rove did that with his mind control and time machine combo~!
Same here. This poll, and one by Zogby, are nice to hear, but we must not let them make us overconfident. These polls do give me a tingly feeling all over my body, because I know they will make the Liberal Messiah's followers angrier and more desperate.
I really think Hillary wants The Big O to lose. She has a better chance in 2012 that way.
I wanted to draw attention to the fallacy that “Republicans are for the rich man.”
“styrofoam” Greek Temple- they tried to pull a “American Idol moment” and Sarah Palin just like a typical mom who sees right through all the childish bull- calls it like it is!!
you gotta love it!!
40 days of Prayer and fasting to end abortion
Sept 24-Nov 2 http://www.40daysforlife.com/splash.cfm
If McCain is leading by three points nationally (as Gallup says), then -- based on actual past election results rather than snap polls -- MCain should be ahead in Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and Ohio; even or barely ahead in Wisconsin and Nevada, even or barely behind in NH, MI, and MN; and behind but within striking distance in Pennsylvania and Oregon. [A note about Nevada: I suspect that McCain, as a Western state Senator, will outperform Bush in Nevada in the last two elections. Ditto may be true for Colorado, which is already notorious in voting more Republican than it polls in Presidential elections.]
If you add just one more point to McCain's lead, then McCain will pull even or slightly ahead even in the states where he is slightly behind. But if this happens, McCain will already be ahead in enough other states to give him 270 electoral votes. So, this would be running up the score.
If you add a second point to his lead, not only do all of these states turn red, but suddenly Washington and New Jersey turn purple.
My point about all this is that the electoral college map matters only if the final margin of victory in the national popular vote is less than 2.5 points or less. Beginning at 3 points, there is something like a 95% plus mathematical certainty that the candidate is ahead will win enough states to get to 270 electoral votes. And it goes very quickly up to virtually 100% the larger the margin than 3 points.
In all fairness, WBEN's listenership is overwhelmingly conservative. The libs all listen to WNED (NPR.)
In all fairness, WBEN's listenership is overwhelmingly conservative. The libs all listen to WNED (NPR.)
For an unbiased view, look at realclearpolitics.com. Or, for a reasonable electoral vote analysis on a website run by a RAT, look at fivethirtyeight.com
I agree, and I also agree that all or most whatever bounce is happening (and it looks large) will dissipate sometime next week (as The One's did). My prediction is that McCain will lead narrowly the rest of the way until the weekend before the election, when the swing voters and undecideds finally break mostly his way and he ends up winning surprisingly handily. All other things being equal, of course (e.g. debates, world events, economic news, etc.).
You bet. Media is going to be relentless with their lies and Sara bashing. while that may be seen as "helpful", in that it exposes MSM to be completely biased towards Obama, it's only helpful if we can expose the lies MSM/ team Obama are printing.
This isn't so easy to do when THEY control all everything most people see. Our media control consists of the internet and some radio, and what ever expensive ad time the McCain/Palin campaign can buy to dispell these stories as well as attack the Oba-Din campaign. Plus they have all the Hollywierdo's and talk shows
We are at a disadvantage.
Yes, if the national polling is truly random, as it is supposed to be. Think of it this way, California is about 10 points more Democratic than the national average, Oregon is 4 points more Democratic, and Washington is about 7 points more Democratic. And then throw in New York, another hugely populated state that trends even more Democratic than California. So, to the extend that your poll includes respondents from these four large states, it is going to skew Democratic. This means that for McCain to be even or ahead in any national poll means that he is doing even better in the other 46 states than in these four states.
The plain truth is that Obama (or any other generic Democratic Presidential candidate) is competitive only because most of the large population states are deep blue states with lots of EVs. This means that McCain has a better chance of winning the remaining states, but he also has a much smaller margin for error (e.g. he pretty much mustwin OH and FL while not losing states such as VA or CO).
Check the spikes here, in a few days I assume that there will be a steady movement. http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm
I’d bet it’s not that close.
McCain campaign looking for volunteers for the last 10 days of the campaigCan you invest 10 days of your life to make history? Sorry if this is somewhat off subject. BUt, I just got it in my email and wanted to share it before I deleted it. If you’d prefer that it is not posted, then please feel free to remove it.
The John McCain 2008 Presidential Campaign is looking for volunteers who are willing to spend the final ten days of the campaign helping in a nearby state. Deployed volunteers will take an active role and participate in a number of Get-Out-The-Vote activities. These activities will include making phone calls, going door to door, recruiting volunteers, and assisting with additional campaign activities and operations.
These ten days will be unpaid and participants will be responsible for arranging their own transportation and housing. The campaign is unable to reimburse any expenses.
Please consider this opportunity to adhere to John McCain’s call to serve a cause greater than self! On the evening of November 4th you will have the satisfaction of knowing that you did everything possible to secure the future of our nation.
Let us know that you are ready and able to serve from October 25th through November 4th by replying to this email with your resume and cover letter. Please send both to Volunteer2@JohnMcCain.com.
Thank you!
John Cummins, Deputy Director of Volunteers
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