I’m not missing that it is going over Cuba.
Other models have it going over Cuba, too, and none are downgrading nearly the way SHIPS is. SHIPS has been alone this week, as far as I know, in its persistent calling for downgrading Ike to a tropical depression.
This predicted nearly full east to west transit of Cuba is unprecedented and it is unlikely that any model deals with the situation adequately. The unusual thing for the models is that the island is narrow, so the core would be over land while the mid and outer bands still charged by warm water. There is plenty of uncertainty over what percentage of the total length of Cuba will be transited and how long the core is exposed to the hot waters south of western Cuba. I’m tending to go with the intuitive forecasts of experienced met professionals, and they seem to think anywhere from a TS to a cat 2 is possible.