Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
At 4 p.m. Sunday, Ike's center was at latitude 21.1 north and longitude 74.6 west, about 75 miles east northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was moving toward the west 14 mph.
The Florida Keys are under a hurricane watch this afternoon.
A west to west-southwest motion is expected to continue today and Monday. Current predictions -- subject to huge changes this far out -- put Ike in the central gulf due south of New Orleans by Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph, down from 135 mph earlier today. Fluctuations in strength are possible today and tonight but Ike is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 145 miles.
On its current course, Ike will move near or onto eastern Cuba tonight. It is expected to be over central Cuba late Monday.
Does this mean you won’t be racing back home to shutter the house?
Second Note: Amen to that!
.
Yep- it’s going to do whatever it wants- meteorologists will have to go along with nature!
Safe travels!
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 07, 2008
...Major Hurricane Ike approaching the north coast of eastern
Cuba...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas and
Granma...Camaguey...Ciego de Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti
Spiritus...Cienfuegos...and Matanzas. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...and for the central Bahamas including Cat Island...the
Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of la
Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Andros Island in the Bahamas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef
southward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Northern Peninsula of
Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
gonaives.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.
All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...and South
Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this hurricane.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.1 north...longitude 75.2 west or about 60 miles...100 km
...North of Guantanamo Cuba. This position is also about 30
miles...45 km...east of punto de sama on the north coast of eastern
Cuba.
Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected tonight and Monday. On this
track...the core of the hurricane will move over eastern Cuba later
tonight and early Monday...and near or over central Cuba later on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some weakening is likely as Ike moves over eastern and
central Cuba during the next day or so.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145
miles...230 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb...27.91 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches
over eastern and central Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up
to 15 inches possible. These rains are likely to cause life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
The southern Bahamas could see rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches
from Ike. Portions of Hispaniola could receive additional amounts
of 3 to 5 inches. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
possible over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...21.1 N...75.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure...945 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
.
LOL,,,Ain’t that the truth...;0)
LOL! I’ll try to remember that one.
wow that good news and I am buying it since the spaghettis are all saying the same thing as well.thanks Elle.
We could send them shiploads of convicts (Mariel in reverse) to help with reconstruction and remain after the cleanup :)
No, they’re in subsidized housing now. We had to move them out to make room for the cows and our world-famous Cream Puffs this summer, LOL!
See Post #213. I guess I wasn’t very clear, LOL!
Yours is the only non-small-talk comment I could find on the page to reply to.
Anyway, if Ike continues straight west as it appears to be in the last several frames, it has only to transit about 3.5 degrees of longitude to get back to open water (warm) on the south side of Cuba.
Getting interesting.
And I believe it is relatively low-level terrain.
The original poster didn’t put up the link so I can’t either...
CUBA
Slamming into the southern Bahamas, Ike bore down on Cuba on a path that could hit Havana head-on, and hundreds of thousands evacuated to shelters or higher ground.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted Ike’s eye would strike somewhere along Cuba’s northern coast Sunday night and possibly hit Havana, the capital of 2 million people with many vulnerable old buildings, by Monday night.
In Havana, residents lined up at gas stations and searched stores for candles, crackers and canned goods after a forecaster warned on state television that “almost the entire country is in the danger zone.”
Cuba’s government said more than 224,000 people were being evacuated in the central-eastern province of Camaguey alone. Foreign tourists were pulled out from vulnerable beach resorts, workers rushed to protect coffee plants and other crops, and plans were under way to distribute food and cooking-oil to disaster areas.
“There’s no fear here, but one has to prepared. It could hit us pretty hard,” said Ramon Olivera, gassing up his motorcycle in Camaguey, where municipal workers were boarding up banks and restaurants and teams of employees covered sheet-glass windows with corrugated metal.
Authorities used buses, trucks and other transportation to move thousands of tourists inland from Cuba’s prime resorts along the northern coast. Ranchers herded cattle in grazing areas of eastern Las Tunas and Camaguey to higher ground.
Ike was set to come ashore in Holguin, home of the nickel industry, Cuba’s most important export, then move westward over the heart of the sugar industry. Holguin’s mines and three processing plants in the mountains were shut down.
Holguin and neighboring provinces have not been hit by a storm of Ike’s power in more than 50 years.
“I’ve never seen a hurricane pass over this city and I’m terribly frightened,” university student Yaneisy Betancourt said by telephone from the port city of Nuevitas.
Strong gusts and steady rains fell at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay in southeast Cuba, where all ferries were secured and beaches were off limits. The military said cells containing the detainees — about 255 men suspected of links to the Taliban and al-Qaida — are hurricane-proof.
Hurricane Ike, labelled an "extremely dangerous" storm already responsible for at least 20 deaths in heavily flooded Haiti, was on course to barrel into Cuba's northeastern flank on Sunday night, and authorities were leaving little to chance.
In Camaguey province 225,000 residents evacuated, 150,000 were mobilized in Santiago de Cuba and 108,000 in Holguin, while 120,000 people - including 13,000 tourists - took shelter in the western province of Matanzas, near the capital Havana. Another 16,000 people evacuated their homes in Guantanamo province, site of a major US Naval base, authorities said, as Ike's outer rain bands began to lash the eastern coast.
* * *
"Eastern and central Cuba could see six to 12 inches (15 to 30 centimeters) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches (50 centimeters) possible," the center said. The hurricane also threatens Havana, whose population of 2.2 million has been put on alert. Residents were stocking up on food, fuel and other supplies. In Cuba, a fragile and aging housing stock is highly vulnerable to hurricanes. Havana in particular has many colonial-era buildings, crowded with families and prone to cave-ins.
Great minds think alike.
At least as long as it sticks to the 21 degree latitude line.
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