Posted on 09/07/2008 6:35:58 AM PDT by NYC Republican
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).
Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.
McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.
McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women. Premium Members can review demographic crosstabs and all the data we collect--not just the portion we make public. Premium Members can also get an advance look at tracking poll results via the Daily Snapshot each morning.
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.
The Republican hopeful also leads by wide margins among those who consider fiscal issues or cultural issues most important. Obama leads among those primarily interested in domestic programs such as Social Security and health care.
Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56% (see trends).
Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.
Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
Each Saturday morning, Rasmussen Reports reviews the key polls of the past week to learn What They Told Us.
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).
Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 57.4 % chance of winning in November. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.
If you missed it, a huge development here in OH last Thurs: with the support of DEM governor Ted Strickland, the “sick leave” initiative was pulled from the November ballot! This would have brought out thousands of “gimme” types who would have certainly voted Obama, and works tremendously in McCain’s favor.
Good news... HtMMN would have benefitted hugely from it.
These national polls are not relevant. We need to be focusing on polling data in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Why would the Dem governor pull it? It would have worked in their favor
What does HtMMM mean?
That was encouraging news. I’m surprised he pulled it off. That referendum would have been disastrous for Ohio small business.
It’s a jobs killer and we already have 6.1% unemployment.
They are relevant and we still need to be focused on polling data in Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
HtMMN = Hussein the Magic Musl Neg... or am I not allowed to use those words?
Yooling...
On top of OH, PA and MI, States I want to watch are WI and MN. Bush came close to talking them in 04'. IMHO the Catholic vote is where it is at this year and they are heavily Catholic.
OH, NV and CO, ok. Add NH to the list.
I disagree with you... As the phrase goes, a rising tide lifts all ships... As McCain’s national poll numbers go up, so do the states... they just haven’t been polled yet
Got it! (You are better off using the acronym)
This is going to be one great election campaign. The debates will make all the difference.
The Dems and MSM have fired their shots, and all they have is a tie. The Conservative side has not even begun telling the people about all of Hussein’s negatives. Hussein has nowhere to go but down at this point, as long as we get busy with barrage after barrage of heavy artillery.
ADMIN CAN WE PULL THIS THREAD FOR OBVIOUS REASONS: RE THE RACIST TITLE (HtMN).
Furthermore can we permanently ban NYC Republican for using the term, and worse, introducing it to Free Republic thus making us all look like idiots and racists.
Thanks!
There was nothing racist in there, implied or explicit
Someone should remind the voters that the current economic woes began after the Democrats took over Congress.
Hmm tell me again what that last N stands for?
Thanks.
This isn’t just a case of hypersensitivity, this is a case of not wanting free republic to be viewed as a home for racists, or in the best case scenario, people who think its amusing to use racist terms.
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