ZOGBY: MCCAIN UP 4%

Zogby ^ | 6/7/2008 | Zogby

[libh8er]

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

Data from this poll is available here The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The Ticket Horserace

9-5/6

8-29/30

McCain-Palin

49.7%

47.1%

Obama-Biden

45.9%

44.6%

Others/Not sure

4.4%

8.3%

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

One-on-One Horserace

9-5/6

McCain

48.8%

Obama

45.7%

Others/Not sure

5.5%

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

-Z-

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.

In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.

[gusopol3]

when they should be camped out at Fort Marcy Park.

gays in the brush?

[ChinaThreat]

McCain and Palin need to start hammering on energy, reminding people that the Dems are in control of Congress, and reform. These are the three planks to success. I saw a poll not long ago said that nearly 40% of people thought that the Republicans held Congress.

[ChinaThreat]

Obama consistently polled high in the Dem primaries. I expect some of that effect to occur in the general election. Probably not quite as strong though, but still 1-3% in my opinion.

[NEPA]

We need to pray for a landslide so we won't hear from the cry babies that the election was stolen

I've been thinking the same thing. A lot of democrats, even fairly sane ones, really believe the only way republicans win is by fraud. Never mind the fact that virtually every proven case of fraud is by dems.

[tellw]

The news coverage of McCin/Palin drawing those huge cheering crowds in MI and Colorado should have an impact on the polls. Palin is getting awesome looking above the fold front page photos a LOT (that was Obama’s advantage before). Even yesterday’s Financial Times from London had great pics of her. She sells papers!

[jilliane]

I was a part of this poll being reported. So can you - sign up at zogby.com - Zogby’s doing a Q&A today about his polling and allowed questions. Go to Zogby for info on that. I asked about the accuracy of the interactive polling method - email (not sure what other method was used) vs. phone calls. Seems to me a skewed sample - age, income and education issues tied to those using email.

[NEPA]

This morning's Scranton paper (extremely pro dem) has a front page article saying Obama has not secured PA.

A few weeks ago I would have thought PA was out of reach for McCain and I still think it's an uphill battle for him. I figured he must be competitive just judging by all the ads the candidates are running (they wouldn't waste the money).

One interesting note from the article is that McCain is leading by 3 points among blue collar workers. The article didn't use the term "Reagan democrats" but that's who they are. They went for Hillary big in the primary and Obama has to really work at winning them over.

[tellw]

Drudge has this poll up now at the top of his page so it should have good impact on today’s news shows.

[1curiousmind]

On Zogby’s site at looked at the bereakdowns for the key states of MI, OH, CO, PA, IN, NV, and in each of them (on 8/20/08) Barr was getting from 7-10% of the vote. I am curious to see how Palin has affected this in these new numbers. My guess is that they were cut in half.

[bcsco]

and Zogby is the only poll that has McCain up at this point. Except CBS has them tied.

Those polls are pre or during the GOP convention. Post-convention polls won't be out until tomorrow.

[iopscusa]

Goodmorning NEPA, I assume you are in/near Scranton and have a local perspective on PA politics....thanks for sharing here on FR and if there is a PA ping list, please let me know.

[AC86UT89]

Remember last week when the media and the Dems (ok, I know, same thing) were saying that McCain picked Palin as part of a cynical political ploy to attract women to the Republican ticket?

What was Obama’s pick of Biden other than a cynical political ploy to attract Catholics and blue-collar men in the swing states? Biden has lived in Delaware almost his entire life, but he was presented as the “scrappy kid from Scranton”. And, as a Catholic, Obama assumed Biden would easily seal the deal with Catholics, such as the ones in western Pennsylvania, which of course was their first stop after convention.

The fact that a woman from Alaska is reeling in the undecided Catholics and blue-collar men in PA, MI, and OH for McCain must be driving the Dems crazy.

Biden has been a total bust for Obama. He neither stirs up the Dem base nor attracts any new voters to the Dem ticket. A terrible pick!

[norwaypinesavage]

"smallish"? Is that a new word for grudging?

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

I’m praying that we can overcome all the coming election fraud with the strength of the ticket.....

Amen and dittos.

And praying for victories in Congressional/Senatorial/Governor races which are now even more vital!

[NEPA]

I don't think there's a PA ping list.

I live about 20 miles from Scranton (a rural area where we cling to guns and religion).

I get the Scranton paper but have canceled it a couple times because they are so extremely biased, they don't even pretend otherwise. But then I renew it because I like the sports and editorial pages. Plus it's like an OCD thing, I have to have my morning paper and coffee or the whole day is screwed up.

By Nov 5 I'll be so fed up I'll probably cancel it again. Besides I have a new carrier and he doesn't always get it here before I leave for work. The old paper lady was here around 3:30am like clock work.

There's a Joe Biden commercial running in the Scranton market and it's actually very good. It has a "folksy" feel to it, not at all negative. And there's no Obama. It makes me wonder what Obama's internals are saying. Scranton went something like 3 to 1 for Hillary based on her family roots there. Biden was born in Scranton so I guess Obama is using a page out of Hillary's play book to get those voters. Or Obama's internals could be saying Scranton just doesn't like him. I haven't seen a local poll.

Another curious fact. In the letters to the editor section there used to be the same people writing insanely anti Bush letters regularly. They have all but stopped. Totally anecdotal but it would seem anti Bush doesn't necessarily mean pro Obama.

[NEPA]

Today's paper has a big hit piece by the local dem editorial pundit on Palin minimizing her experience and saying McCain was desperate. It even insinuates none of the other VP contenders would agree to be on McCain's ticket. It repeats lies and rumors that have already been debunked. He (Chris Kelly, local blow hard) even repeats the "Palin had an affair" rumor and says "maybe it's true, maybe it's not".

To me it smells of fear.

[Paul_B]

That is encouraging. :) Keep up the good fight.

[dennisw]

I have relatives up in Pennsylvania. I’ll ask what’s going on. They are McCain voters

[libh8er]

We need to pray for a landslide so we won't hear from the cry babies that the election was stolen.

In some ways that could be worse. The whole country would be accused of racism and we could see race riots all across the country, the race industry would be invigorated, and liberals in general would make race a huge issue for decades to come. Either way the left would score political points. If we win by a very narrow margin, we cheated the black man. We win by a landslide, we are racists and would never allow a 'person of color' to the high office. I think we should win comfortably, but not too comfortably. :)

[Prophet in the wilderness]

" The whole country would be accused of racism and we could see race riots all across the country, the race industry would be invigorated, and liberals in general would make race a huge issue for decades to come. Either way the left would score political points. "

Yeah, their hypocrisy abounds.... we can remind them of them hurting Micheal Steele's chances, and their dirty tactics of Chucky Shummer & Associates.... they don't want to go there ? wouldn't they ?
Or remind them of Oprah's racism and her bias attitude toward about Sarah Palin coming on her show.... or ? MSM/DEMS/LIBS sexist remarks about Sarah Palin... I mean, we can go on and on and on of some of the material that we can use against them.
Who cares what the rest of the world thinks about us..... this is OUR election.
The world has already seen the hypocrisy of the MSM/DEMS/LIBS and are already commenting about it in foreign news papers..... yeah... if Obama loses... the MSM/DEMS/LIBS have a real good argument of America being racist... sarcasm.