Posted on 09/04/2008 3:38:16 PM PDT by goldstategop
RUSH: Here is Lisa in Orange County, California. It's great that you waited. I appreciate it, Lisa.
CALLER: Thank you, Rush. It's an honor to speak to you. It's about the sixth time I've been able to call you and it's just a thrill every time I get to talk to you.
RUSH: Thank you. One thing.
CALLER: Yep!
RUSH: I need to ask a favor. Please don't say so, because you are hurting the feelings of those who have been trying for 20 years and have nothing but a busy signal.
CALLER: Ohhh. I'm sorry. But I'm a high school government teacher here in Orange County that has talked to you a few times, and I am so pumped up about last night. I think Sarah Palin is just exactly what we needed. But the point of my call is, last week during the Democratic convention, after every single star-studded performance or whatever happened, you had the polls out there measuring -- trying to measure -- the bounce.
RUSH: There wasn't any bounce. There wasn't any bounce to speak of.
CALLER: Ha! Exactly. But this week, I haven't seen any of the liberal pollsters coming out because I think the bounce is too huge to Americas I think it's going to be over the top.
RUSH: I want to warn you of just the opposite.
CALLER: Really?
RUSH: Yes. Who runs polling units? Who pays for them? It's the ABC/Washington Post poll.
CALLER: Right.
RUSH: Who is their candidate?
CALLER: Obama.
RUSH: The New York Times/CBS poll.
CALLER: Obama.
RUSH: Right.
CALLER: This is my point.
RUSH: The NBC/Wall Street Journal. Just follow me on this.
CALLER: Okay.
RUSH: I'm host.
CALLER: Yes, I'm sorry. RUSH: You're a veteran caller but I'm still more experienced than you.
CALLER: (laughing) You are, and you're the king.
RUSH: NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, who do you think their candidate is?
CALLER: Obama.
RUSH: Okay. USA Today/Gallup, who do you think their candidate is?
CALLER: Obama.
RUSH: Uhhhh, Fox News/Opinion Dynamics?
CALLER: I -- I -- Gosh, that's a tough one. I want to say Obama, but Fox, they're too fair.
RUSH: They're down the middle. And then the other one is Rasmussen, and Rasmussen just does it on his own, he's not tied to anybody. His polls and Zogby. No, Zogby's with Reuters. Reuters is a bunch of communists from Europe. So here's how these polls are used. All of these polls want credibility at the end of the day. They want to be right on the presidential results. So the only poll you should pay attention to are these polls in the last seven days; maybe even fewer days than that, maybe the last two.
CALLER: Mmm-hmm.
RUSH: Because up until those two days before -- the weekend before -- the election, that's polls are going to be used to shape public opinion. The last poll I saw that had Obama up five had a 26% Republican voter sample. I don't remember which poll it was. So be very careful on these polls. I will be stunned if I see a huge, huge McCain... Well, bounces are sort of traditional.
CALLER: Right.
RUSH: But this is a new time because this is the first time we've had back-to-back conventions in a long time. So the conventional wisdom is (which means that you can forget it) is that the polling bounces are irrelevant because there's not enough time between the conventions for voters to settle down and then get reignited. So I would just caution you, if you see polling numbers that shows McCain still two points down after Sarah Palin, the reason is to depress you.
CALLER: Exactly. Yeah. I hear you, and just... You know, when I look at Sarah Palin and her smile and her just demeanor, and I think of Michelle "Amarosa" Obama, her angry demeanor.
RUSH: Yeah, well, she was masking the anger. Here's another thing about the polls, though.
CALLER: Mmm-hmm.
RUSH: If the polls in the next say three or four days come out and McCain and Palin get a huge bounce, be very wary. They can create this big bounce, and then over the next weeks it can erode, and they can use the polls to show that Obama and Biden are really fighting back and that they have the momentum!
CALLER: Yeah.
RUSH: Polls today, Lisa, are designed to do one thing, and that's create news under the guise of sampling public opinion.
CALLER: Yeah. I agree.
RUSH: They're just the ability for the editorial page to get its opinion on the front page.
CALLER: I agree. I absolutely agree. Once again, I do not disagree with Rush.
RUSH: Well, it's hard to disagree with me, I know. Some people --
CALLER: (laughs) It is.
RUSH: -- still try, but it's very hard.
CALLER: You're wonderful, Rush, and --
RUSH: The only place I'm ever wrong is like every man, and that's at home.
CALLER: Well, you play such an important role for us and for our country, and I just really, truly appreciate you. Again, I'm going to be using your knowledge and your wisdom in my class this fall. I cannot wait to get in the classroom.
RUSH: Terrific. I appreciate that. That makes me happy. Thank you very much.
CALLER: You're welcome. Have a great day.
RUSH: You do the same.
If we were twenty points ahead, the media wouldn’t tell us. I never saw a single poll during the 1972 and 1984 fall election blowouts by Reagan and Nixon.
The last published poll I saw in 1984, was in March, showing Mondale beating Reagan by six points. It was shouted from the rooftops and on every front page.
The day before the election, USA Today published a story headlined, “Reagan goes for 50 state sweep.” I still have it. Just two weeks earlier the press had been calling Reagan a doddering idiot and too old to be in office.
That’s all Rush is saying. They have a financial interest in getting their final polls right. Up until then, ignore them.
But a rising tide floats all boats. If a Dem advertises on MSNBC, or a Pub advertises on Fox, both are preachine to the converted, which is a poor way of spending an ad budget. Not betting or anything, of course.
My wife used to be a Media Director for an ad agency. Sometimes the ways they chose to spend the client's money was not obvious at first glance.
For example, a hardware store chain stopped sponsoring a baseball team. At first glance, it was crazy! You want to tell men about the home improvement suplies, right? Makes sense.
But you do not want to pay to tell the men who would rather watch the game than fix the house about it..it turned out to be a bad buy.
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