First, I know a bit about polling. Thanks.
Second, support showing up in polling during the summer doesn't mean squat. If they show up to vote in November is ALL that matters. Polling, as you well know since you look at internals, estimates turnout. And no matter how good they get at it, that's all it is. An estimate, usually based on past performance during similar elections.
If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.
While I think you have decent points, your nonsensical "get out of the echo chamber" comment directed at me is absolutely laughable. I suggest you read a few of my posts before attempting to preach at me again.
McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women.
Funny, all I've been hearing about is Obama's trouble with women, not McCain's. However, I do expect many of those disgruntled Hillary supporters to "come home" to the Dems.
Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes. Via donations and volunteers. If you can't see that, then I suggest that YOU get out of your musty basement and see the real world.
Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives. I'm talking actual votes, not polls.
“...support showing up in polling during the summer doesn’t mean squat.”
It does when it’s the base. Members of a party’s base, once they have decided to vote for their party’s nominee, rarely change their minds.
“If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.”
And if only your base shows up, especially when your base is 32% of the electorate, you will lose.
“Funny, all I’ve been hearing about is Obama’s trouble with women...”
It’s been in the internals for months. But you won’t hear about it, especially not here. You have to seek out information if you want to know the true state of the race unfiltered by conservative and MSM expectations. The issue has been discussed on polling websites extensively, and like I said, it’s in the internals.
“Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes.”
Advertising is important, GOTV critical. But Obama will still be able to outspend McCain, that $10 million notwithstanding.
“Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives.”
I’ve looked at the numbers, extensively. There were a whole lot more self-described Republicans in 2004 than there are now.
The Bush DUI in 2000 hurt him much more than most people realize. It was no small thing to evangelicals and conservative Catholics, who didn’t go for Bush in 2000 by nearly the same numbers as they did in 2004. In fact, Bush came out of the 2000 Rep convention ahead by several points, only to see his lead drop to dead even by November. Unfortunately, getting a big summer lead and losing it is not a fate that only happens to Dems, not that you’d know that by the posts around here that assume, in fact are certain, that that will be Obama’s fate.
It’s great to have a fired up base, but as I posted a few days ago, that’s worth a point, maybe two at the outside in the overall election. The Pubbies just don’t have the numbers. So the battle is for the middle.
Palin describes herself as a hockey mom at every campaign stop and in every interview. That is not an accident; it has been tested and focus-grouped to increase her appeal to soocer moms, those moderate late-deciders whom McCain must have to win.