“...support showing up in polling during the summer doesn’t mean squat.”
It does when it’s the base. Members of a party’s base, once they have decided to vote for their party’s nominee, rarely change their minds.
“If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.”
And if only your base shows up, especially when your base is 32% of the electorate, you will lose.
“Funny, all I’ve been hearing about is Obama’s trouble with women...”
It’s been in the internals for months. But you won’t hear about it, especially not here. You have to seek out information if you want to know the true state of the race unfiltered by conservative and MSM expectations. The issue has been discussed on polling websites extensively, and like I said, it’s in the internals.
“Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes.”
Advertising is important, GOTV critical. But Obama will still be able to outspend McCain, that $10 million notwithstanding.
“Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives.”
I’ve looked at the numbers, extensively. There were a whole lot more self-described Republicans in 2004 than there are now.
The Bush DUI in 2000 hurt him much more than most people realize. It was no small thing to evangelicals and conservative Catholics, who didn’t go for Bush in 2000 by nearly the same numbers as they did in 2004. In fact, Bush came out of the 2000 Rep convention ahead by several points, only to see his lead drop to dead even by November. Unfortunately, getting a big summer lead and losing it is not a fate that only happens to Dems, not that you’d know that by the posts around here that assume, in fact are certain, that that will be Obama’s fate.
It’s great to have a fired up base, but as I posted a few days ago, that’s worth a point, maybe two at the outside in the overall election. The Pubbies just don’t have the numbers. So the battle is for the middle.
Palin describes herself as a hockey mom at every campaign stop and in every interview. That is not an accident; it has been tested and focus-grouped to increase her appeal to soocer moms, those moderate late-deciders whom McCain must have to win.
Of course it did. That's why I referenced the two elections. A deflated base nearly cost him everything. And the lead didn't just evaporate over time. It was done in one fell swoop with the DUI story. They came out of the conventions tied, then Bush opened up a very slight lead through the debates, into November. Then the bottom fell out, and undecideds broke about 3:1 for Gore.
I never said the base alone would win. Of course not. Neither will the "middle" without the base win.
By the way, those self-identified Pubbie numbers have improved lately, and they will almost certainly continue to improve given the Palin selection and McCain going after lightweight Obama.
I'd rather have a fired up base and hope for the very unreliable mushy middle than have the mushy middle sewn up with a very deflated base.