“...a fired up base. Without that, McCain almost certainly loses.”
Wrong. McCain was already getting the same number of votes out of the base that Bush did. That support has been showing up in the polling all summer. Too many Freepers spend all their energy dissing polls rather than looking at the internals and learning something.
The battle, like all elections, is for the middle. There, McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women. The McCain campaign was smart enough to see that even if most Freepers didn’t, and it is those independent female votes that Palin was put on the ticket to win.
Your post perfectly illustrates my point that Freepers need to get out of the echo chamber once in a while. The base was going to vote reluctantly for McCain. Now they’re going to vote enthusiastically for McCain/Palin. Those are happier voters, but not MORE votes. MORE votes is what McCain needs to win, and as of yet, he is not getting them.
Instead, Obama is getting his convention bounce, which is coming from consolidating Democrat support. He hasn’t won the middle either, yet. The battle for the independent females who will decide the new President is on. If Palin wins ‘em over, McCain will win. If not, Obama will win.
First, I know a bit about polling. Thanks.
Second, support showing up in polling during the summer doesn't mean squat. If they show up to vote in November is ALL that matters. Polling, as you well know since you look at internals, estimates turnout. And no matter how good they get at it, that's all it is. An estimate, usually based on past performance during similar elections.
If your base does not show up, you will not raise money and you will not win.
While I think you have decent points, your nonsensical "get out of the echo chamber" comment directed at me is absolutely laughable. I suggest you read a few of my posts before attempting to preach at me again.
McCain is having trouble because he is doing very badly, horrendously badly, terribly, horribly badly among independent women.
Funny, all I've been hearing about is Obama's trouble with women, not McCain's. However, I do expect many of those disgruntled Hillary supporters to "come home" to the Dems.
Oh, and a fired up base DOES translate into more votes. Via donations and volunteers. If you can't see that, then I suggest that YOU get out of your musty basement and see the real world.
Wanna talk numbers? Look at 2000 vs. 2004, specifically at conservatives. I'm talking actual votes, not polls.