George H. Bush in 1992...
Sorry..I didn’t not read ROT’s post properly (SEE POST #22). She was citing two examples of past elections; the race in 1992 and the one in 2000.
Anyway, W did win regardless of their dirty tricks with the DUI the weekend before the election.
Also, in 1992 the elder Bush had Perot in the race sucking 19% of his voters away. At least I think most Perot voters were people angry at Bush for raising taxes when he said he wouldn’t, and there was a recession at the time.