Posted on 09/02/2008 3:14:30 PM PDT by TheRedSoxWinThePennant
Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
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Irrelevant... Grasping at straws...
Actually, it’s quite relevant.
Agreed.
After all the debates, polls will start telling the tale.
Right now, your nuts if you think that any poll today predicts the winner accurately.
Because they have a poor history this far out of that.
Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 I think. Although he should be up more than that coming out of a Convention.
Uh, but how was the race on Sept 1 in 1988?
That would be more relevant, not a mid-July number.
1976 is the most comforting comparison. We went from down 30 to down by .5% ... but we still lost.
Obama had a good polling day Monday is what it says.
We will see in a week or so how it shakes out.
Polls around convention time are notoriously fluid, but I would still rather be up than down.
Here’s the winning formula: Hope for the best, but fear the worst. That means we don’t quit just because we’re behind in the polls. Nor should we relax whenever we’re ahead. The situation can change dramatically in either direction at any time.
I kinda disagree. I think they have a fantastic history... of showing the 'Rat way ahead in the months leading up to an election. They do tend to converge on a winner in the final days though, I'll give 'em that.
Two speeches turned that campaign entirely around. Dan Quayle's speech, and George H.W. Bush's. I remember them like they were yesterday. When we were leaving the hall after Bush's speech, I turned to my friend and said, "we're gonna win, aren't we?" And he said, "yeah, I think we are."
IT’S GALLUP!
They normally load it up to 26% Republicans, 74% Democraps.
IKt’s Gallup!
Even with that distortion all they can get is an 8 point difference!?!?!?!
That would tell me that they are in deep Doo-Doo.
Up by 6 on Rasmussen... summer weekend (+3), post convention “bounce” (at least +3), it’s likely voters, so no correction needed for that. Should be Obama by at least +6 today, and it is. Impossible to correct for the “Bradley effect” until the polls close on election day. I’m guessing that’s worth about 3 points nationally.
That was 20 years ago... A different era altogether. I could go on for hours talking about the differences, but for now, if you care to read my rationale, there’s a GALLUP Poll thread here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2073096/posts
1. Pollsters notoriously undercount Republicans compared to Democrats in polls.
2. Conservatives tend to hang up on pollsters, while Dems love them.
3. Pollsters, like most in the media, are largely libs and not to be trusted anymore than the rest of the media.
4. The Republicans haven't had their convention yet. The Dems have.
5. It's early September and things can change in a flash. Wait until the debates.
Not sure if anyone is going to read this, but it is true and should make you feel better. Demorats always do better before conventions and after because they have the media on their side and they build up all the BS. Then slowly, but surely the BS is knocked down in debates and ads. That’s not fair, but that is just the way it is..Obama is probably up 6 points. Now McCain and Palin have to knock it down one point at a time starting tomorrow..6 points is not really enough cushion for Demorats at this point. Therefore, we are in descent shape
In 1988, we had a HUGELY popular incumbent Republican and a guy running to be RR #3. This year, we have a very unpopular incumbent and a guy trying to distance himself from Bush while still claiming to be better than the OTHER guy distancing himself from Bush. It's a completely different scenario. McCain is still in this, but ignoring the reality of polls is a sure-fire loser.
Exactly. In any Gallup poll you have to adjust a good +10-15 points for the Reep and -10 to 15 points for the Dem to get an idea of reality. With Obama only ahead by such a slim margin even in the Gallup poll then the truth is that McCain is ahead.
Just chill about the polls. Do you really think 10% of ALL Americans changed their opinion about Obama within the last 5-6 days because of what we saw last week?
I don’t think so.
We saw Obama’s lead grow to 6-8 points right after his European trip mid-July. Within a week, it was back to the 3-4 point lead. McCain chipped away slowly the last 4 weeks, and was even to up slightly before the convention.
Last week and this week are very unusual, so I am not sure how accurate the polls are right now. Back to back conventions is rare. Labor Day weekend right between them. Hurricane Gustav in there also.
I remember Rasmussen/Zogby talking with Hannity last Tuesday. Both said Obama would be up 8-10 points at the end of the convention. But by the end of the republican convention, it would be back to dead even again. They seem to be pretty accurate so far, so lets give it a week.
Lets see what the polls look like in mid-September.
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