Posted on 09/01/2008 3:43:31 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
The other thing I notice ... all the McCain states are solid with only Virginia within 5 percent. So it looks like the fight is for Obama to hold onto what he barely has. I would say Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are possible movers. If Obama can’t get Penn, and he did poorly in the primary, he is sunk.
A few random thoughts:
1. I’m betting Ohio goes McCain in the end.
2. Colorado and NH aren’t a lock, but are quite attainable.
3. Michigan and Pennsylvania are close, but are going to be a tough fight to the GOP The good news is, McCain only has to take one of the two to seriously crimp Obama’s chances on Election Day. A razor-thin margin of victory is still a victory.
We have to defend so many states, one slip up and we’re f^%k!
Obama has a great ground game so I’ve heard. I’m scred!!!!
We need to hook up with Hillary supporters, get a massive ground game going and concentrate on winning PA and Michigan.
Also, Ohio was above 50% for part of last week, and Colorado has been at 50% intraweek in the past month.
RealClearPolitics has CO and NH as toss-ups, along with VA, NC, FL, MN, NM, OH, MI, and NV. Those are based on real state-wide polls, rather than bets.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Palin pick has fired up the GOP base.
***Also, Intrade leads the polls on some issues and lags the polls on other items. It’s safe to say that in this area, Intrade lags the polls because Intraders were caught by surprise by the Palin pick for VP.
In addition, most Intraders are liberals. There’s a built-in bias of wishful thinking within each political contract that reflects this. For instance, Al Gore was still trading above $5 until recently and Hillary Clinton is still above $1 to win the presidency. Whoever can quantify this built-in bias will have a good arbitrage opportunity at Intrade.
Intrade is going by poll #’s. Intrade is $hit! That day when info was coming out about Palin being the veep pick
I could’ve loaded up @ $2 for a longggggggggg time until morning hit when there were more chatter on TV and Drudge did Palin start to move up.
Adding Ohio and New Hampshire to McCain's total would give us 269 - 269.
After that, I'm not sure what happens.
I heard Specter say that Pennsylvania would go to McCain
And it’s just the beginning of Obama’s slide.
I’m looking for the McCain/Palin ticket to get 50 states!
> Adding Ohio and New Hampshire to McCain’s total would give us 269 - 269 <
There would be a vote of the state delegations in the House of Representatives. And even if the ‘Pubs currently have a majority of the state, there’s no guarantee they’d continue to have a majority in Jan. 2009. So I must withdraw my previous remarks. My apology.
One FREEPER said one bad slip for McCain/Palin and its over.
Perhaps, but one bad slip for Obama/Biden and its over for them too. Also, I saw some posts from the NRA today-they seem to be getting fired up.
I think McCain can get 310 EVs at least
Not bad. Getting close. All we need are Ohio and Colorado, both within 3% of winning.
Yes indeed, the trend is our friend!
B.S. Ohio and Pennsylvania will go for McCain.
Ohio needs to be moved over to M/P. Also, I believe Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico will come over. I pretty much see the same result as 2004. That means Iowa as well.
We may get a solid bounce from the convention.
I think Palin may help and I also think the more people learn
about Obama, the less likely they will vote for him.
One FREEPER said one bad slip for McCain/Palin and its over.
Perhaps, but one bad slip for Obama/Biden and its over for them too. Also, I saw some posts from the NRA today-they seem to be getting fired up.
I think McCain can get 310 EVs at least
Yep. We had an 8% win in CO in 2004 and 3 of the last 4 polls had McCain leading. I’d say we take Colorado by 2% at worst.
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