Other polls have McCain/Palin up by as much 4-5 points. Who’s correct?
I believe this poll included Thursday, a day before we were Palinized! Let’s wait til next week to see how the tea leaves read.
What polls are you talking about?
I believe that Gallup uses registered voters not likely and they usually don’t show the breakdown by party. If they do I may not have looked deep enough.
As usual we only find out on Election Day.
I know you’re gonna take offense to this, sorry but... Please STOP posting garbage like that!!! There was one poll, a week ago, before the convention that showed JM ahead by 5. That’s it, and it’s clearly irreevant now... What’s wrong with you folks, really?
Gallup seemed to get some kind of Outlier polls on Wed/Thur of last week. They went from Obama+2 to Obama+9 almost overnight. On a 3 day tracking poll, that would mean Obama would have gotten a 15-18 point lead on Wednesday and/or Thursday night. That is highly unlikely, considering most other tracking polls showed it staying in the 3-4 point range.
Another interesting thing to note, is that Obama’s bounce came after Hillary and Bill’s speeched on Tues and Wed nights (Wed and Thur polling). Doesn’t look like Obama got anything on Friday from his speech on Thursday. In fact, it looks like his poll numbers went down after the speech. Whether that is response to his speech, or the masterful timing of McCain’s VP announcement, only time will tell.
Also, this weekend is hard to judge poll wise. This is a major US holiday weekend. A lot of folks are travelling and doing other things. Hurrican Gustav is getting a lot of news also.
I think Palin’s pick is a game changer of pretty significant proportions. Just look at all the news and chatter. The conservative base is not just happy with McCain/Palin, they are absolutely thrilled and energized. I could tell it at church today. Folks were all talking about Palin and how impressive she has been in just the short amount of time they have seen her.
Compare the discussion and chatter about Palin to Biden. Absolutely no comparision. She was THE news story on Friday, and is probably only 2nd to Gustav right now. Who is even talking about Obama or his speech?
Once they really get a chance to introduce Palin to Americans, they will fall in love with her. She and her family are real. Blue Collar, living the American dream. Her values align with 60-70% of the public. She comes across as bright, intelligent, articulate, compassionate, caring, strong, self confident, and humorous.
A week from now, McCain will be up 4-5 in almost every poll. And then the key to watch will be those mid-western battleground states. If PA, MI, MN, & WI start shifting McCain, you know what effect she is having.
Rasmussen, judging by the last election. I haven’t trusted Gallup for years.
They all are. Polls these days don’t say much about November. I’m anxious how people will react as they get to know more about Palin. So far the Republicans seem enthused. She may even bring some home who have had it with McCain.
“Other polls have McCain/Palin up by as much 4-5 points. Who’s correct?”
As of today? Havent seen those.
This is a Th, Fr, Sat poll. We are on the downside of the obama bounce. If he was up 8 pts prior day, then a 6pt result means the saturday sample was below a 6pt gap. That’s good. Ras had the gap at 3 pts for Obama. better.
I wont feel comfortable until I see a Mccain +3 poll result. Hopefully we will get there in the next 10 days.