It has always been that way before an election.
Jimmy was up by huge number and he barely won.
Kerry up, then lost.
Duk, up then lost.
It’s always high for a Dem before the actual vote.
“Kerry up, then lost.”
From Gallup Aug. 20, 2008:
“To the extent history is a guide, Barack Obama and John McCain can both expect to see some increase in voter support after their nominating conventions, an effect observed after nearly all of the 22 national conventions since 1964. The median increase has been 5 percentage points.
This ‘convention bounce’ is an important part of the presidential campaign narrative, and is one of the more highly anticipated events for poll watchers. Gallup has data to provide a reasonable estimate of each presidential candidate’s convention bounce dating back to 1964. All but two candidates — George McGovern in 1972 and John Kerry in 2004 — saw their support among registered voters increase after their parties’ conventions.”
Kerry’s bounce was -1 in this poll in 2004. Bush’s was +2.