Posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:50 AM PDT by flyfree
The reason Katrina was so devastating was because the levees broke and New Orleans was flooded. It wasn’t because of the high winds. The winds did a lot of damage, mostly in Mississippi, but the thing that made Katrina memorable (and exploitable politically) was the flooding in New Orleans, with Wolf Blitzer moaning about how the victims were “so very black”.
The state polls are very close. The good news is that McCain is either only 10 down, or, if you believe very recent (not the most recent) polls with McCain ahead, he's got 274. (For ex, he leads in the most recent CO poll, trails slightly in the most recent FL poll, but just a few days ago led in FL).
***There is no evidence debates decide anything.***
In 2000, the pundits were saying what a great debater Gore was and how dumb Bush is. Bush held his own against Gore. Those debates ressured people that Bush is not inexperienced to Gore.
In 2004, Bush was headed for a landslide against Kerry. However, Bush’s poor performance in the first debate made the race closer than it should.
A couple of weeks ago at Rick Warren’s church, McCain did well in his chat with Rick Warren. The chat helped move wary conservatives to McCain.
So debates do help.
These charts says differently for the bounces.
| REPUBLICAN CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 25 - 28 | 33% (Jul. 16 - 21) | 45% (Jul. 30 - Aug. 4) | + 12 |
| 1964 | Jul. 13 - 16 | 19% (Jun. 25 - 30) | 26% (Jul. 23 - 28) | + 7 |
| 1968 | Aug. 5 - 8 | 37% (Jul. 18 - 23) | 43% (Sep. 1 - 6) | + 6 |
| 1972 | Aug. 21 - 23 | 55% (Aug. 4 - 7) | 66% (Aug. 25 - 28) | + 11 |
| 1976 | Aug. 16 - 19 | 27% (Aug. 6 - 9) | 36% (Aug. 27 - 30) | + 9 |
| 1980 | Jul. 14 - 17 | 40% (Jul. 11 - 14) | 46% (Jul. 30 - 31) | + 6 |
| 1984 | Aug. 20 - 23 | 48% (Aug. 10 - 13) | 57% (Sep. 6 - 9) | + 9 |
| 1988 | Aug. 15 - 18 | 42% (Aug. 5 - 7) | 48% (Aug. 19 - 21) | + 6 |
| 1992 | Aug. 17 - 20 | 32% (Aug. 13 - 14) | 38% (Aug. 21 - 23) | + 6 |
| 1996 | Aug. 12 - 15 | 36% (Aug. 11) | 41% (Aug. 16 - 18) | + 5 |
| 2000 | Jul. 31 - Aug. 3 | 46% (Jul. 25 - 26) | 50% (Aug. 4 - 5) | + 4 |
| 2004 | Aug. 30 - Sep. 2 | 45% (Aug. 23 - 25) | 47% (Sep. 3 - 5) | + 2 |
| Total Republican Bounces: 11 out of 12 | ||||
| DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION BOUNCES | ||||
| Year | Convention Date | Gallup Poll Before (date) | Gallup Poll After (date) | Bounce |
| 1960 | Jul. 11-15 | 46% (Jun. 30 - Jul. 5) | 51% (Jul. 16 - 21) | + 5 |
| 1964 | Aug. 24 - 27 | 63% (Aug. 6 - 11) | 62% (Sep. unspecified) | - 1 |
| 1968 | Aug. 26 - 29 | 26% (Aug. 7 - 12) | 30% (Sep. 1 - 6) | + 4 |
| 1972 | Jul. 10 - 13 | 32% (Jun. 16 - 19) | 32% (Jul. 14 - 17) | 0 |
| 1976 | Jul. 12 - 15 | 50% (Jun. 25 - 28) | 63% (Jul. 17 - 20) | + 13 |
| 1980 | Aug. 11-14 | 28% (Aug. 1 - 4) | 40% (Aug. 15 - 18) | + 12 |
| 1984 | Jul. 16 - 19 | 35% (Jul. 13 - 16) | 38% (Jul. 27 - 30) | +3 |
| 1988 | Jul. 18 - 21 | 47% (Jul. 8 - 10) | 54% (Jul. 22 - 24) | + 7 |
| 1992 | Jul. 13-16 | 31% (Jul. 9-10) | 59% (Jul. 17) | +28* |
| 1996 | Aug. 26 - 29 | 46% (Aug. 23 - 25) | 54% (Sep. 2 - 4) | + 8 |
| 2000 | Aug. 14 - 17 | 40% (Aug. 11 - 12) | 48% (Aug. 18 - 19) | + 8 |
| 2004 | Jul. 26 - 29 | 48% (Jul. 19 - 21) | 48% (Jul. 30 - Aug. 1) | 0 |
| Total Democratic Bounces: 9 out of 12 | ||||
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates that Ross Perot dropped out of the '92 race on on July 16, 1992. This impacted the polls following the Democratic National Convention which, ended on the same day, much more so than the GOP post-convention polls in August.
Source: Gallup polls from Roper Center's iPoll database.
An FYI tidbit from Rasmussen:
“Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For the month of August, the targets are 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated. For July, the targets were 41.4% Democrat, 31.5% Republican, and 27.1% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). “
My understanding is party affiliation has been improving for the GOP, so we should expect to see a Rasmussen bias towards McCain in Sept.
“There were a couple of exceptions, but not many at all.”
Not true. We have discussed this before on other threads and I have challenged you to show me those numbers by good pollsters. I have looked at Ras’ primary numbers and Obama took the undecideds at least as often as Hillary did.
Like I said, there is no vote fairy coming to save McCain, just like there was no vote fairy coming to save the Republicans in congress in 2006, even though Freepers insisted vociferously that the polls were wrong and all would be well. The polls weren’t wrong, Freepers were.
McCain needs a numerical, not chimerical, lead if he hopes to win.
What a great point. We still are a Republic.
In the end I think it will end up being OH., MO., CO. that will be the keys. After selecting Palin I got so jazzed up I put my McCain sticker on the car. The next thing will be the donation. I had thought I would be sitting this one out.
Wait for the two convention days to roll off. Patience.
Thanks for the info.
All the real indications (as opposed to spin and misdirection) are that McCain will need actual numbers higher than Obama’s to win.
I think he will. I've really been impressed how he's handled himself and the aggressive campaigning during the Rat convention.
“A Popular Vote/Electoral Vote digression is perhaps more likely this year than in others because of the Obama can “run up the score” in cities of states he’ll already win like Illinois and California.”
That’s hard to say. According to polling websites, the Obama campain thinks the black vote could be a game-changer in FL, GA and NC. Apparently they’re planning huge GOTV efforts in swing states with large black populations. There is no way to tell if that tactic will actually work, and probably no way to poll it.
LOL!
Trust me I know the feeling. I live in Chicago. I'm just so tired of the perpetual adolescents I figured it's time to tell them to grow up.
Thanks for those numbers! The way they are defining “bounce”, it means total poll points gained, not the margin between the candidates. That means Obama (so far) has only gotten a four point bounce. He went from 45 to 49. Some people here seem to think he got an eight point bounce because he’s up by eight points. That’s not correct. His bounce thus appears to be well below the norm, and most candidates with such a low bounce have gone on to lose the general election.
Gallup says differently. Roper is amalgamating Gallup polls. Gallup compared this very poll (daily registered voter) in previous years and came up with the results I’ve posted. I’ll take Gallup’s word on Gallup’s results over someone else’s.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePoint-Bounce.aspx
It has been a slow turnaround, but there has been some slight movement amongst self-identified voters in our direction recently. If the RAT voters do indeed make up 10% more of the electorate than the GOP on election day, we are heading for another wipe out.
My guess is the Palin pick will help move the numbers our way a little more, but we'll have to wait and see.
>>
That’s hard to say. According to polling websites, the Obama campain thinks the black vote could be a game-changer in FL, GA and NC. Apparently they’re planning huge GOTV efforts in swing states with large black populations. There is no way to tell if that tactic will actually work, and probably no way to poll it.
>>
“You show me a candidate that is depending on new voters for victory — and I’ll show you a loser.” . . . James Carville
The fact Obama didn't pass 50 percent post convention is pretty stunning.
Good post, comeback, and I agree completely about the difficulty in calculating any day for certain because you can’t get the accurate baseline (at least I can’t). But after putting pen to paper, today’s “continued” 8-point lead is fabulous news for McCain, if you put stock in this poll at all.
You suggested that BO won the Wednesday sample by 18 (I agree), the Thursday sample by double digits, and yesterday slightly. I’m not trying to argue or quibble, but I don’t think those numbers add up. If he led by 18, the next day by 10, and yesterday by 2, today’s rolling average should show a 10-point lead. But it doesn’t.
By my count, the Wednesday sample went enormously to BO, by something like 54-36, which unbroke what had essentially been a tie for a few days, and showed up in Thursday morning’s rolling average as 48-42. The Thursday sample gave BO about a 48-42 advantage, which bumped the Friday morning rolling average up to 49-41. If those numbers are right, do you know what yesterday’s sample had to show to keep today’s rolling average at 49-41?
45-45.
And tomorrow BO’s huge Wednesday sample rolls off, so (again, assuming I’ve been right so far), BO could have a good polling day today — say, a 48-42 day — and still see tomorrow’s rolling average cut his lead in half (47-43). Further, if today’s sample matched what I think yesterday’s was, BO could wake up to a 46-44 rolling average tomorrow.
Bounce that.
They won’t need to go to NO to help because the Republicans in charge are already getting people out. It will be nothing like last time. Their motivations will be so transparent. They just think people are stupid and will not see it as a political stunt.
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