[wolf78]

I don’t know what the President of Poland knows, but I still wouldn’t count on the Western Europeans standing together with Poland on anything.

On the other hand, the US has always stood with Poland, just like in 1945.... ah, well - not.

But I actually think that Sikorski is referring to another "cold war" instead of an actual military (or even nuclear) confrontation. That's why he's referring to "Europe is 10 times richer". And he's right. Russia needs e.g. German tunnel boring machines (TBMs) etc. to rebuild it's infrastructure. Russia would suffer more from isolation than Europe would from interruptions in energy supply. After all, if Russia ceased its oil production, it would go broke and if it re-routed its oil flow to China, that would free up capacities elsewhere. Disruptions would last a few years, at most, Russia's inevitable decline for decades.

[Pan_Yan]

Russia would suffer more from isolation than Europe would from interruptions in energy supply.

I think your conclusion is correct. However, the Russians have shown a willingness to cut off oil to pressure other countries, and Europe has not shown the willingness to stand up to anyone.

Poland gets 95% of its oil from Russia. If the tap gets shut off prices around the world would likely skyrocket. The appeasement crowd in Western Europe would probably fold like a house of cards.

The Democrats would have a golden opportunity to control both houses of Congress with a filibuster proof majority and the White House.

Hopefully, President Bush can find the right button to push to make them blink. I'm afraid that France, Germany and the like would be perfectly willing to let Georgia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, maybe even a Balkin state of two go to maintain the status quo with a resurgent Russia.