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Russia would suffer more from isolation than Europe would from interruptions in energy supply.

I think your conclusion is correct. However, the Russians have shown a willingness to cut off oil to pressure other countries, and Europe has not shown the willingness to stand up to anyone.

Poland gets 95% of its oil from Russia. If the tap gets shut off prices around the world would likely skyrocket. The appeasement crowd in Western Europe would probably fold like a house of cards.

The Democrats would have a golden opportunity to control both houses of Congress with a filibuster proof majority and the White House.

Hopefully, President Bush can find the right button to push to make them blink. I'm afraid that France, Germany and the like would be perfectly willing to let Georgia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, maybe even a Balkin state of two go to maintain the status quo with a resurgent Russia.

Poland gets 95% of its oil from Russia. If the tap gets shut off prices around the world would likely skyrocket. The appeasement crowd in Western Europe would probably fold like a house of cards.

That is true. However, in the past Russia only used the "oil / gas weapon", i.e. withholding supplies, for a limited amount of time and usually backed off, when countries like Ukraine etc. agreed to pay market prices. Right now Putin's / Medvedev's position is secure, because a Russian middle class can finally afford Chevy Aveos and shopping at IKEA Moscow. A full-blown economic confrontation would cause turmoil in Russia. That's why even the threat of EU sanctions (has the US threatened sanctions yet?) has led to some shrill shrieks in Russia.

So, a price spike, yes, but only temporary.

I'm afraid that France, Germany and the like would be perfectly willing to let Georgia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, maybe even a Balkin state of two go to maintain the status quo with a resurgent Russia.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia are not only members of the EU, but NATO also. Tanks crossing the border would mean for Russia to declare war on NATO.

So I believe colorado tanker is right when saying: As to an attack on Poland, yes I believe the Europeans would fight. My opinion of the Russian Army is no better than my opinion of the old Red Army. The Poles could probably defeat them on their own, but in combination with us they surely would.