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TANKS,HAL,,,

NW track will shut-down most of the rigs/wells in the Gulf!

Rigzone.com won’t update for 5 hrs. or so,,,

No up-date from WU,,,

(snip)

the cloud pattern has become better defined over the past few
hours...with a well-defined eye and a thickening eyewall. Dvorak
classifications at 00z were t3.5 from both TAFB and SAB but the
structure has improved since then. The initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt and the next aircraft at 06z will most likely
find a hurricane. A microwave pass at 2243z showed a low-level
eyewall. Given this structure...and a SHIPS RI index well above
climatology...significant strengthening is likely prior to the
center of Gustav reaching Haiti. After that...the intensity of
Gustav will depend largely on how much the circulation interacts
with the land masses of Haiti and Cuba. Global models forecast an
upper level pattern that...while not anticyclonic...is at least
difluent and of light shear. The latest forecast track indicates
more time over water than the previous advisory and so the
intensity forecast has been increased to reflect that. Both the
GFDL and the HWRF show Gustav avoiding nearly all of Cuba and have
Gustav as a major hurricane in five days.

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2008(DAMMIT!)

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 26, 2008

Gustav has continued to intensify during the late night hours. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found flight-level
winds of 90 kt...peak SFMR surface winds of 76 kt...and a recent
estimated pressure of 984 mb. The initial intensity is
conservatively raised to 75 kt. Satellite images show an organizing
pattern with a central dense overcast becoming more prominent and
Gustav is likely not done intensifying before it passes over
southwestern Haiti later today. Some weakening is shown in 24 hr
due to the land interaction with Haiti. Thereafter...the hurricane
is forecast to be over extremely warm waters with relatively light
shear. The official intensity forecast is increased and now calls
for Gustav to be a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. It is Worth noting that both the GFDL/HWRF forecast show an
even stronger hurricane. Most indications are that Gustav will be
an extremely dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
in a few days.

The initial motion estimate is 315/8...though Gustav may recently be
moving a bit more to the right. The biggest change to note this
morning is a dramatic southwestward shift with almost all guidance.
A large upper trough over the western Atlantic is expected to move
east away from Gustav...leaving ridging over the Bahamas and
Florida. Global models have come into much better agreement that
the hurricane will turn to the west-northwest or even west in a day
or so due to this building ridge. The official forecast has been
adjusted southwestward beyond 24 hr but is still on the northern
edge of the guidance envelope. The forecast could have been
shifted even more to the left but we’d prefer to wait until the
guidance becomes more stable.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/0900z 17.2n 71.9w 75 kt
12hr VT 26/1800z 18.0n 72.9w 85 kt
24hr VT 27/0600z 18.8n 74.3w 75 kt
36hr VT 27/1800z 19.2n 75.6w 80 kt
48hr VT 28/0600z 19.4n 76.9w 85 kt
72hr VT 29/0600z 20.0n 79.3w 90 kt
96hr VT 30/0600z 21.0n 82.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 31/0600z 23.0n 85.5w 100 kt

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila