Posted on 08/24/2008 12:49:11 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The Russian oil boom, which has produced a gusher of cash, political power and an opulent elite - and has helped fuel the country's renewed assertiveness in Georgia and elsewhere - is on shakier ground than officials in Moscow would like to admit.
Most of the oil produced after the country's 1998 financial collapse has come from drilling and re-drilling old Soviet oil fields with more advanced equipment - squeezing more black gold out of the same ground - and efforts to develop new fields have been slow or non-existent.
That strategy is potentially disastrous, said Valery Kryukov, who researches oil companies in western Siberia for a government-funded think tank.
"If the situation which exists now stays the same, oil production will start to decline seriously in two years," Kryukov said in a phone interview from his offices in the city of Novosibirsk.
The implications extend far beyond Russia's borders. Last year, Russia was the world's second-largest oil producer. If its output begins to decline or is hampered by inept or corrupt business practices, the price of oil could begin climbing again.
The concerns about Russia's oil industry also raise questions about the health of the nation's economy, which has enjoyed stratospheric growth thanks to high oil prices since the economic crisis a decade ago, according to interviews with a dozen economists and analysts.
Higher oil and gas prices could further enrich and embolden resurgent Russia, but if production declines sharply, a hungry bear could prove to be even more troublesome than a prosperous one is.
That's a serious matter for a country where, by some estimates, the oil sector funded about a third of the national budget last year, and where by all accounts industrial, technological and agricultural businesses lag far behind.
(Excerpt) Read more at kansascity.com ...
If Pelosi wants to save the planet, perhaps she should leave it
It took me a minute.
Well done.
Anyone that does business with Russia under the present management is a fool.
The Russians are spending their new oil wealth like drunken sailors, I also understand the political elite, headed by Putin, has stashed and continues to stash billions in oil revenue in Swiss banks, as opposed to re-investing in their economy. When the wells slow down or the price of oil drops to $60 - $70 a barrel the Russians will be left with no new infrastructure desperately needed to further develop their macro economy. In other words, they’re screwing themselves.
;o)
Last time it took two or three years to make an impact on chip and software exports to the east. Then Ron and Yasu sat down and worked something out. After that the Koreans and Singapore fell in line. This may be a simpler program to implement as there are far fewer countries and far fewer companies producing really advanced oil recovery technology that Russia will need. Despite the historic confluence of interest it's possible that M. Sarkosi may be amenable to a deal. It will cost us but it may be possible to work something out.
All of this would have to be worked out as part of G7 strategy (yes, G7) to economically isolate Russia.
Disclosure, I hold shares of both BHI and SLB.
Starting in about 18 months, as a guess. Total and Schlumberger certainly know which side of the bread is buttered; they're not fools AT ALL.
“In other words, they’re screwing themselves.”
Actually, same old story, the Russian elites, cheered on by the Russian people, are screwing Russia up so badly that it falls way behind the rest of the world.
''With the Russians, if you don't have the whip hand, you don't have any hand.''
Always did like that little aphorism. Very sharp chap.
Maybe?
The same people who own the Anti-Georgian propaganda site "war.georgia.su" (.su, not .ru) also own "armenia.su" and "azerbaijan.su".
Vlad isn't through yet.
They need western tech/experience to drill. It costs more to extract in Siberia due to the extreem cold. If it wasn’t for the currently inflated prices, they would be losing money. (anything under 65 is a loss sale)
That is why I suspect the constant claims that the US is about to attack Iran every time the price drops is comming from the FSB...
If Putin isn’t dealing with the foreign companies that have the expertise honestly right now don’t expect any improvement in the future.
There will always be idiots. They will always advance money and be surprised when they get screwed, even though all their predecessors were screwed in the past.
Look at Cuba. Fidel consistently defaults on every loan made to him. It just a matter of when he will get around to it. The only major country that isn’t holding bad debts is the U.S., and that’s because we have a trade embargo.
If foreign companies want to get screwed, let them. No need for American shareholders to take the hit.
The Russians are being Russians. And old Communists still think and react like old Communists.
I’m not in doubt. But many here seem to be.
And that, of course, is where those elusive weapons of mass destruction were spirited off to (Moscow, by way of Syria) while we telegraphed our moves by screwin around with the UN one last time!!!
Everybody with two brain cells to rub together knows this, but yet, nothing can be proven so far...
Interesting!
Thanks Ernest.
The Russian power play on oil, natural gas reserves
Boston Globe | August 23, 2008 | Marshall I. Goldman
Posted on 08/24/2008 11:00:04 AM PDT by Donald Rumsfeld Fan
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2067200/posts
Pelosi says case needed for U.S. offshore drilling
Reuters on Yahoo | 8/24/08 | David Morgan
Posted on 08/24/2008 10:25:13 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2067188/posts
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