Does Barack Obama have the Nomination Locked Up?

Does Barack Obama have the nomination locked up? You would think by now that the Democratic choice for President is most assuredly in concrete, sealed and delivered. After all, the convention starts next Monday, on August 25th in Denver, Colorado. The Democrats could not show up so disorganized as to blow the scene in the home stretch. Anybody thinking differently would have to be seen as being at least out-to-lunch. However, I am willing to risk that moniker and say that this nomination really has not yet been decided and that it is possible America is in for a big surprise.

Look at the latest numbers: As of August 19, The New York Times reports the Democratic delegate count as follows:

Barack Obama has 1661 pledged delegates, along with the presumption of 103 more from nonbinding contests, for a total of 1764. In surveying the Super-delegates, the count is another 394.5 for a grand total of 2158.5.

How is a half-vote possible? Democratic delegates from overseas apparently get only half a vote each. Go figure that, but whatever, it is the fact.

Hillary Clinton has 1592 pledged delegates along with the presumption of 48 more from nonbinding contests, for a total of 1640. She can also claim 280 Super-delegates for a total of 1920.

Needed for nomination are 2,118 delegates. Thus, at the moment, the projection is for Senator Obama, certainly, but only by 40 votes and the fact is that the Super-delegates can make up their minds, or change them, at any time, right up to the time to vote on nomination night. The big dance thus centers on the Super-delegates and what they decide may still be in question. Indeed, a change of thinking amongst 40 Super-delegates would be enough to throw Obama’s nomination in doubt and a wholesale defection of

298 of the Supers would change the dynamics to such an extent that Senator Clinton would receive the nomination.

Just a month or so ago, this kind of thinking would be totally off the wall, but a lot has changed in a month and a lot more could switch within another week. Ever since Barack returned from his mid-East “rock concert,” his image has been shrinking. Figure for a moment that Obama is now seen in the popular vote as in virtually a statistical dead heat with John McCain.

All indications and past indicators would favor the presumed Democratic nominee being well ahead in the popular polls right now. Figure that the Saddleback conversations were most unhelpful to Obama where John McCain is widely perceived to have clobbered him, and which were viewed by a large mass audience. Figure that the Clintons have been quietly working away to have major presence at the Convention and have insisted that Hillary’s name be placed in nomination. Supposedly, she will then tell all her supporters to vote for Obama…maybe.

Figure, too, in what may be seen as deep paranoia or simple crassness, that the Arkansas Democratic state party chairman who switched from Hillary to Obama after Hillary “dropped out” has now “dropped dead” in a very bizarre murder. Is the count now down to 39 up for Obama? No, let us assume for simple decency that the count is still standing at 40. However, the Clintons are professional and experienced politicians: 40 Super-delegate votes out of a total of approximately 740 equals 5.4%. That is not such a big switch. An experienced Senator and/or an experienced former President know how to run an effective campaign quietly behind the scenes to change the minds of just a little over 5% of the players.

And in this case the campaign has not been so quiet. The seeds of distrust and disenchantment have been effectively thrown and not the least of which has been by the presumed candidate Barrack Obama himself. At the moment he is not playing very well on the American stage and a lot of the Democratic powers-that- be know it. While they are putting on a good face and spinning the inevitable spin, the facts are that there is a lot of worry amongst the Democrats as to whether Obama can win in November. Hillary is ambitious and seems to be gaining momentum as a possible alternative.

Late as the ballgame is, it ain’t over as we know until the fat lady sings and in this case…well, you get the idea. Of course, a locked convention could bring another Democratic darling to center stage because an Obama-Clinton war might be understood by many to be too strong for either to survive. Yes, Al Gore very much waits in the wings and with all the saintly eco-credentials and as a proven vote-getter who won the 2000 Presidential election’s popular vote to boot.

Impossible you say? Well, other conventions in our history have gone the “locked” route. Don’t forget Jefferson-Burr of 1800; in that contest, the election went to the House of Representatives, which over the course of the next six days cast a total of 35 ballots, with Thomas Jefferson receiving the votes of 8 state delegations each time—one short of the necessary majority of nine. Indeed, During the heated debate, Alexander Hamiliton, who didn’t like either Jefferson or Burr said he supported Jefferson because he was "by far not so dangerous a man" as Burr.

In the end, a group of Deleware Federalists led by James A. Bayard reasoned that a peaceful transfer of power would require the majority to choose Jefferson and just 15 days before the Constitutional date of the inauguration—Thomas Jefferson was elected President on the 36th ballot. Ten state delegations voted for Jefferson and 4 voted for Burr, while two state delegations remained deadlocked.

Eighty years later, the Republican convention had its twists and turns: In 1880 James G. Blaine was a candidate for nomination to the presidency. His nomination and election would have meant the transfer of patronage to new party leaders. A strong movement was organized by Senators Conkling, Cameron, and Logan, to head off Blaine's nomination by bringing Ex-President Grant forward for a third term. Garfield was an anti-Grant leader in the Chicago Convention, but was not himself a candidate. However, on the thirty sixth ballot, Blaine's supporters combined with the field against the Grant forces, and nominated Garfield. So there is indeed precedence for such changes, however late in the game it may appear to be.

Well, let us all hope very much that it does not happen and that Obama’s perceived 40 vote margin does indeed hold up, because it would appear now that John McCain will have a much easier time running and winning against a weakening Senator Obama rather than a resurgent Hillary Clinton or Al Gore. America awaits the opening gavel in Denver and Republicans everywhere should be holding their breath.

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Some porblems with yoyur “Chicago methods theory.”

It works only for Dems vs Republicans. When Republicans call them on the fraud, the faithful media paint them as evil, rich, powerful, racists.

When it is the Clintons calling them on it, (and they have called them on vote fraud/intimdation in several primaries) the phony racism, etc charges are out of play and the charges get actual scrutiny.

When you truly investigate the fraud, you can get some traction. The tightrope that the Clinturds need to balance however, is being careful to not shed to much light on these fraudulent voting parcatices because they will need to use them themselves in the general.

I have a theory that the Dems. and Obama never expected him to win. They never expected the surge he received. And they never expected Hillary to fall behind. I think, that many Dems did not want to run against her, save Edwards with his over-inflated ego. Obama was probably lured into running, with the understanding that it would be good "practice" for the future. I think they were just grooming and preparing him. He had no known bad history at the time, he seemed a "clean" candidate, and having an African American would make the Dems look very sympathetic to that section of America. But, the PR on Hillary kept getting worse, and people started flocking to Obama who said little they could really hang their hat on, but offered platitudes like "change" and "hope." Hillary just seemed to perpetuate more of the questions that had hung around her and Bill eight years before.

Hence, eventually, Obama edged past Hillary, and because he was/is ill-prepared it caught everyone off-guard. They know he isn't ready to be Presidential material. Obama knows it too, which explains why he acts grandiose and presumptuous. Acting high and mighty is a protection for those afflicted with fear and a low self-esteem. Obama is trying to talk himself into feeling like a leader. Everyone is saying he will be, so he thinks that by assuming the persona of the role now, he will be able to convince himself that he is what they are saying. You know...like when someone can't do something they act like the big-know-it-all who can.

But, as is obvious, Obama can't get prepared in a few short months to compete with politicians who have had years at practicing their dirty tricks and covering their lies and frauds. Obama's lies have surfaced fast and furious. He had not had the time to build a network of people who would protect him. Those people just came on board when he did, they have no skill at this game either.

As for his ability to speak intelligently in an extemporaneous manner, he has none. He is not at all aware of foreign diplomacy tactics, or the intricacies of the world situation and handling of other leaders and their egos. All this is becoming very obvious and Obama is slipping down that ladder he climbed in a few months like a greased pig. His oratorical skills are limited to words he can deliver like scripted theatrical performances. When confronted with a serious question for which he had not prepared, or no one had written the response down for him, he stutters with ahhhhs, and ummmms, and says stupid things like "that is above my pay grade" because he has no answers, no clear knowledge, and no real background in the issues.

Obama, behind close doors, is probably shaking in his empty suit. This is not what he thought it would be. Instead of training, he got sent to the front line, and he is ill-equipped for the real battle. He will go down, and Hillary will be pulled out of the shadows where the Dems put her for a while - while the heat against her cooled down. And, it has given the Clintons time to apply the pressure they are so capable of doing through their machine. I think Obama will acquiesce to Hillary, and has already probably been made aware of that need. That is why the Clintons have been selected to hold so many spotlights at the convention, and Hill's name is to be on the roster. No one wants to admit - on the surface and in open conversation - that Obama might fail, but they can't take the chance of loosing Hillary. So the powers-that-be have provided her with as much support as possible but just enough so as not to irritate the faction of America that still is enraptured with the idea of Obama in the White House. Obama feels and knows this, Michelle (who has been out of the scene lately) feels and knows this. Right now it is just a game of hanging on for appearances sake. At least, IMHO.

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