Posted on 08/20/2008 3:44:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Some bad news today for the Obama campaign.
Realclearpolitics.com yesterday had John McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 274 to 264 electoral votes, counting leaners. RCP has Obama carrying just two Bush '04 states, Iowa and New Mexico, with 12 electoral votes. McCain's lead in two other Bush '04 states, Virginia and Colorado, with 20 electoral votes is microscopic, but then so is Obama's lead in New Hampshire, with four electoral votes. And when RCP takes tossup states, with 132 electoral votes, out of the totals, Obama is ahead 228 to 178. Still...
Then today two national polls showed McCain ahead. The Battleground poll, conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and sponsored by George Washington University, has McCain ahead by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 46 percent. They have Democrats ahead on the generic vote-for-Congress question by 47 percent to 40 percent, just a tad less than the 49 percent-to-41 percent Democratic edge in their September 2006 poll. Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating has gone from 59 percent to 28 percent in July 2007 to 57 percent to 39 percent now. That's almost identical to McCain's 57 percent to 36 percent fav/unfavs. Offshore drilling is supported by 72 percent, oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by 58 percent. The other poll, Reuters/Zogby, will be discounted by many because of pollster John Zogby's reputation for tweaking the rules. (Here's a criticism by David Moore on the pollster.com website.) It shows McCain ahead by 46 percent to 41 percent, in contrast to Obama's 47 percent to 40 percent lead in Zogby's July poll. Interestingly, it shows McCain ahead on managing the economy by 49 percent to 40 percent—further evidence that high gas prices and Democrats' opposition to offshore and ANWR drilling have cost them dearly. Voters under 30 went for Obama, but by only a 52 percent to 40 percent mark.
Obama is still ahead 44.9 percent to 43.6 percent in the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls. It seems pretty clear that Obama has lost some ground, though exactly how much is unclear. Intrade currently prices McCain at $38.90 to win $100. That may turn out to be a good buy.
But there's also some good news for the Obamaites.
Yesterday weather.com projected "scattered thunderstorms" with a 60 percent chance of precipitation for Thursday, August 28, when Obama is scheduled to deliver his acceptance speech outdoors in Invesco Field. Today's 10-day forecast says that August 28 in Denver will be "mostly sunny."
I’m just praying that McCain doesn’t start to think he can jettison the Republican/Conservative base he’s (finally) bringing to his corner.
DU is freaking out right now, Funny as Hell if you ask Me.......
Obama has definitely hit his high-water mark and its been downhill ever since. Next week he’ll get another small bump back up, but we haven’t hit September yet and already he’s struggling despite the media’s obsession with him.
Brit and the gang call Michael Barone like the smartest guy they know. He can go precisly county by county down to the last precinct blah blah blah.....
but do you remember him from 2006 talking about the midterm elections? He was bullish on the GOP bot losing as many seats as they eventually did etc.....
Huh?
I know a lot of conservatives who are voting against Obama not for McCain and would have stayed home if it was someone else or voted 3rd party.
The dems made a big mistake nominating him.
I personally know 6 die hard dems who are voting for McCain and 4 more that are leaning to voting for him or a third party.
I keep trying to stop reading the threads over there but it's too funny.
Do these look like 18+ million democrats that are going to vote for Senator Barack Obama?
Hillary Clinton Supporters For John McCain:
Party Unity My A$$ PAC/People United Means Action PAC:
Democrats Against Obama/Nobama ever!
http://democrats-against-obama.org
Just Say No Deal:
Take a look around these sites for a half hour or 45 minutes and then you decide....(there are hundreds more linked to these, just look for links)
Democrats lost in 2004 because they nominated an Empty Suit with a history. To rectify their oversight, they nominated an Empty Suit without a history for 2008.
I wonder what they’ll do to top this off in 2012... Maybe they’ll nominate an Empty Dress with a history.
2000 - Nominated Gore. New Media still in its infancy. Gore almost won.
2004 - Nominated Kerry. New Media has become a ubiquitous distribution method for news, rumors, and opinions. Kerry loses by quite a bit.
2008 - Set to nominate Obama. New Media more ubiquitous than ever. MSM tries to squash New Media, failing miserably. Distributed fact checking, RSS news feeds, and lots of independent, original content compete directly with the carefully crafted and selected stories run by the Old Media. New content consumption methods (TiVO, iTunes, DVR, RSS, E-mail, Digital Subscriptions) lead to diverse news and information exposure, including advertisements. Obama’s performance in the polls drops as New Media attempts to fill gaps in the information black hole about Obama promoted by the Old Media.
If McCain announces a home run V.P. choice that will pick up the conservative base...it’s his to lose.
That adds up to pretty good odds of late afternoon or evening thunderstorms. We got our afternoon thunderstorm season late this year.
It's sure be a shame if the Sermon On Invesco was rained out. :-))
Gosh, it’s kind of sad that Obama can’t win on ANY issues. He has nothing to go on anymore.
Did I say sad? I meant hilarious.
FWIW, I believe his high-water mark was when his campaign announced that they were reserving a 70,000+ seat stadium for his acceptance speech.
Well said.
He's right they are losing their minds over McCain's rapid advance.
Like any RINO, McCain will go out of his way to lose. But in the end, I still think he’ll win because of the risk factor. To the average independent (who will decide the election), it’s the devil we know vs. the devil we don’t.
But, I can’t see McCain running like a true conservative. If McCain ran like a true conservative, he would win 45 states. But since he doesn’t want to govern like a conservative, he’ll run like a RINO. Again, he’ll win because to the average voter, Obama’s a crap-shoot.
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