Let the US presence build, let international pressure build.
Trying to dislodge the entrenched Russians at this point would be playing right into their hands.
GEORGIA CONFLICT 2008
Posted on 08/17/2008 9:09:25 AM PDT by Schnucki
Russian forces have refused to hand over control of the strategic town of Gori to Georgian police amid signs that Moscow was attempting to drag out its promised troop withdrawal for as long as possible.
General Vyacheslav Borisov, the commander leading Russia's advance in northeastern Georgia, claimed that his troops had begun to pull out of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, the crucible of the conflict between the two ex-Soviet neighbours.
But, typifying the kind of claim and counterclaim that has characterized the past few days, Russia's defence ministry denied that and withdrawal was underway and hinted that it could be several days before one began.
"It has not started yet," said a spokesman for the ministry.
"The question of withdrawal is being considered now and the decision will be taken as the situation in the region is stabilized."
In Gori, 15 miles into undisputed Georgian territory from the South Ossetian frontier, a senior official from President Mikheil Saakashvili's administration was involved in a verbal altercation with Gen Borisov after he refused to withdraw from the town.
Russia pledged to pull out of Gori on Thursday after its troops took advantage of the first day of peace to seize the town in apparent violation of a ceasefire brokered by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France.
The United States has repeatedly called on Russia to honour the truce, which calls for a withdrawal to positions held before the conflict began. But Washington has also sent mixed signals after agreeing to change the terms of the truce to allow Russian troops to patrol within undisputed Georgian territory.
Officials in Tblisi claimed that Russian troops continued to advance this morning, with military vehicles entering the towns of Khashuri and Akhalgori for the first time.
Meanwhile apparent Russian attempts to cripple Georgia's infrastructure have
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Can we fly Predator drones over Georgia?
Seems that we should be able to tell what is going on.
Yes but that information isn’t made public.
Let the US presence build, let international pressure build.
Trying to dislodge the entrenched Russians at this point would be playing right into their hands.
The Georgians need to mount a determined attack on the Russians around Gori, and NATO needs to declare a no-fly zone over Gori (and enforce it). Turkey is a member of NATO and is within easy flying distance.
We should have had enough time to train a few hundred Georgian troops in the proper use of Javelin missiles by now.
It takes time to properly position both the Hammer and the Anvil.
L
L
Yes, the Russians will declare the Georgians at fault if they fight, so what? They have already declared the Georgians at fault and they will continue to do so with or without the Georgians fighting back.
The Russians consider it a win-win. The only down side on the ground in Georgia for the Russians is if they start to take losses and are presented with a strategic scenario that makes escalation unacceptable to them.
The Russians are at heart eastern thinkers and loss of face or the fear of loss of face will drive them out of Georgia.
The Russians already have their boot on Gori. Do not give them the opportunity to put it on Tiblisi.
Well one thing for sure, the Town of Gori will be looted if a when the Russians withdraw, we are gonna have to supply a lot of “ potato washers” the Russians stole .
Can I take a second to indulge myself in a complete vanity post?
On the thread where the German Chancellor showed solidarity with Georgia, I posted a link of the German band The Scorpions playing their song “Wind of Change” in the Red Square in Moscow. This was a huge deal. It symbolized everything that had supposedly been broken down in the ending of the Cold War.
To a child of the 80’s such as myself, I was old enough to be aware of the magnitude of seeing on live TV the Berlin Wall coming down. That song was huge to us and represented how the Germans felt about their country being divided against an ideal they did not agree with. It was a jubilant occassion and I remember watching with my friends and for the first time becoming aware of politics and what it meant when bad people are in charge of making decisions that affect you and your family.
In watching this video again this morning it hit me. All the emotions of this past week and the utter realization of what this means. I don’t see this as a whim of Russia or just a one time thing. But as a total betrayal of how and what they intend. And all the ‘progress’ that has been made thrown right out the window.
I watched the original, emotional video for this song which has some really moving images of that era and how monumental this time was and I started to cry. Maybe it was the fear of watching all this unfold in front of my eyes and also the understanding that once again, the world has changed. And this time not for the good. And now to add to it, I am a mother. Double the fear, you know?
Once I finished somewhat of a grieving, I got angry.
We are not at the mercy of Russia by God! We can defeat them whatever their aims and desires. So freaking what if they want to take over pipelines, or the whole of bloody Europe, we can stop them!
I felt a pride surge up in me and I realized no matter how nitpicky I want to be about McCain and how he isn’t my first choice for President, this lit a fire under my butt to get this man elected because just as the world changed this week, it would change with the election of Obama. The man who wants to put to a vote whether or not another country can be fought when invading an ally. And to give a vote in a case when the invader has the ability to knock it down for crying out loud!
Anyway, I really don’t even know what I am trying to say except that this is what I have been going through this morning. Call me an emotional female, whatever. I do feel emotions, but resolve through thought. And I am going to do more to get McCain elected. Reagan was who was needed in the 80’s, and McCain is who is needed now. Both times to fight what I niavely had thought what was over, but it’s not.
Thank you Mr. McCain for recognizing the K and the G and the B in Putin. Please govern acccordingly.
What is your evidence that the Russians feel any sense of restraint caused by Western actions? Don't you think they anticipated at least this level of reaction?
It is more likely that the Russians want to give an unquestionable message to other former vassals, namely that the West cannot/will not protect them. How best to do this? Not with a rapid blitz of Georgia, but with a slow strangulation of it, in clear view of the world. That is the Russian/Soviet style. The thugs way.
What the Russians have not planned on is an actual fight. If we declare a no-fly zone over Georgian airspace as dictated by the cease fire which they just signed, then the Russians are put on the defensive and the escalation ball is thrown into their court.
The Russians will use this week to break the cease fire no matter what the Georgians do. For their own national pride, they must fight back. They need to pick one Russian column deeply within Georgia's uncontested borders and destroy it.
1.) Recall our Ambassador from Moscow for 'consultations'.
2.) Expel the Russian Amabassador and his Staff from the US.
3.) Disband the G-8 and immediately reconstitute the G-7.
4. Immediately invite Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.
5. Begin shipments of Javelin Anti-Tank systems into Georgia.
6. Begin shipments of Patriot batteries into Georgia along with US trainers.
7. Announce clearly and loudly that Russia, as a belligerent party to the conflict, has lost their Veto vote at the UN Security Council.
8. If they're not there already, move several squadrons of A-10's to Incirlik in Turkey.
9. If they're not there already, move several squadrons of US Fighters to Incirlik to provide cover for the A-10s.
10. Announce clearly and loudly that if the Russian armor isn't moving out of Georgia proper they'll be subject to US air strikes and a time and place of our choosing.
That ought to do it.
L
“Can we fly Predator drones over Georgia?”
- - -
Why do you think they are not there already?
The didn;t take Tiblisis when they clearly could have.
The visit of those 5 Presidents, putting themselves in harms way was, I believe wholly unanticipated by the Russians. They knew if something happened to them, that they would have been at war with them too. ,p. I also believe that they did not anticipate the insertion of US forces in the humanitarian role by the US.
But those forces are not reay to fight yet, and the Georgians have been pushed back. Simple as that.
If the Georgians hold, there is a much better chance we can hold until we are more prepared.
Then the moves into INcirlik would be mounted to coincide with our own tough stand and those anbnouncements.
But not until we are ready.
In the mean time, we keep providing humanitarian aid and having the Georgians man their positions and not give into provocation.
Jeff,
I always appreciate reading your posts.
They are dependably wise and level-headed.
I remember reading a quote from Rommel complaining that the fate of the Afrika Korps would be decided by an anonymous supply sergeant.
The problem with simply threatening exclusion from the G-8, taking away the Olympics, etc. is that it's the pattern Western playbook and the Russians know it inside out. They will have expected it and have therefore already decided that it doesn't matter to them. Besides they have anticipated that it is only a threat and that they can continue to dance back and forth over the line in the sand as they please and pull back any time they choose.
It is like a child who knows that their parent will first threaten mild action, then give them a second-third chance to remediate their behavior, and then and only then begin to institute the mild action. The child sees something they want to do and they just do it. By the time the parent gets to the fifth opportunity to remediate, the child stops their behavior having done everything that they wanted to do without any consequence.
The parent can congratulate themselves afterward about their great parenting skills, but it is what it is.
When you come across a rape in progress, you shoot the rapist. You don't pretend that allowing the rapist to leave on his own timeline is somehow a victory.
The old time proven way of destroying a society is to prove that it is powerless and have your way with it. They are doing that.
Would you suggest doing nothing if the Russians and their tag along thugs were burning American towns and humiliating Americans? All in the hope that some sort of moral victory would force them to leave, sometime in the future?
The only opinion that matters to the Russian leaders is the opinion inside Russia. They are in full control of that.
Their is nothing that you are suggesting that the Russians have not anticipated and accepted.
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