I have corresponded with and read just as convincing stories from the other side. Those stories speak of Ossetians shelling a Gerogian village after the intital cease-fire...which the Georgians then correctly construed as a violation and attacked.
I believe this story for very simple and direct reasons.
1st, the Russians have great interests in maintaining control of the tunnel that exits the Caucasus mountains, and a sea approach into Georgia that is unopposed. They do so with the two seperatist, and they hope to be soon independent provinces. They have supported those movements for just these obvious reasons and not out of care for the people's there.
It is a geopolitical gambit to allow direct and immediate access into Georgia and the Caspian region and its resources.
2nd, the Russians were prepared far too quickly with their supposed "retalitory" actions. Putting together that much armor and troops, and the amphibious and naval operations that soon followed is not accomplished in a day or two. Those things had to be in motion for weeks beforehand.
Yet the Russians were ready to go within hours of the Georgians pushing north into South Ossetia. Clearly, the Russians had this planned well before the Georgians ever attacked.
I have no doubts at this point that the Russians helped and urged the Ossetians to attack, and goaded the Gerogians into coming north precisely so they could use it as a pretext for their military actions. Stories that try and view it as something different or being encouraged by the Russians and used as propoganda.
I also have no doubts because it all happened when it did, with the start of the Olympics. That was not just coincidence either.
People's who put their faith and trust in Putin and his ilk are misguided at best, and complicit with his aims at worst. He is not altruistic, and he is not "protecting" them. He is advancing his own plans for power and using naked aggression to do so.
Luckily, the Georgians held out long enough for the Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, and Lithuania to arrive in Tiblisi before the Russians could get theere, and before they could kill the Georgian President which they were trying to do. That was one of the most couragous things I have seen done by a group of national leaders in my lifetime...and it worked.
Coupling that with Washington's strong response and Bush now sending the US military to spearhead humanitarian efforts for the Georgians...and at the same time provide a de facto military shield, has to this point halted the Russina military gambit.
The situation is still tense and a crisis for sure, but I believe now that Georgia will survive a free country.
If the populations of the two porvinces vote to go their own way, unfortunately, because of the immoral debacle we committed in Kosovo, I believe the UN will go along, as will the Russians of course, and Georgia will be deprived of those critical areas for its own defense.
The answer to this will likely be the US and Western Europe seriously upgrading and modernizing Georgia's military, her admission into NATO, and probably US or NATO bases in Georgia to ensure that she is not cut asunder by the Russian capability to at will come through that tunnel and land troops on the shore, all south of the Caucasus.
But make no mistake, the weaponry that the Georgians will utlimately receive in such a scenario, will allow them to do what they could not do this go around...that is target and bring down the tunnel, and target and oppose landing that would otherwise threaten them.
In addition to that, which will work against Putin's designs, there will also be other unintended consequences like the treaty Poland just signed, probably Ukraine's admittance into NATO as well as Ukraine severly restricting the Russian Black Sea fleet use of the base at Sevastapol, and other former satellites much more quickly and solidly being driven into the westen republics camp.
I am willing to bt that the Georgia President wins re-election in a landslide.
See my new site on this issue if you get the chance:
