Sorry my FRiend, we disagee on this.
I have corresponded with and read just as convincing stories from the other side. Those stories speak of Ossetians shelling a Gerogian village after the intital cease-fire...which the Georgians then correctly construed as a violation and attacked.
I believe this story for very simple and direct reasons.
1st, the Russians have great interests in maintaining control of the tunnel that exits the Caucasus mountains, and a sea approach into Georgia that is unopposed. They do so with the two seperatist, and they hope to be soon independent provinces. They have supported those movements for just these obvious reasons and not out of care for the people's there.
It is a geopolitical gambit to allow direct and immediate access into Georgia and the Caspian region and its resources.
2nd, the Russians were prepared far too quickly with their supposed "retalitory" actions. Putting together that much armor and troops, and the amphibious and naval operations that soon followed is not accomplished in a day or two. Those things had to be in motion for weeks beforehand.
Yet the Russians were ready to go within hours of the Georgians pushing north into South Ossetia. Clearly, the Russians had this planned well before the Georgians ever attacked.
I have no doubts at this point that the Russians helped and urged the Ossetians to attack, and goaded the Gerogians into coming north precisely so they could use it as a pretext for their military actions. Stories that try and view it as something different or being encouraged by the Russians and used as propoganda.
I also have no doubts because it all happened when it did, with the start of the Olympics. That was not just coincidence either.
People's who put their faith and trust in Putin and his ilk are misguided at best, and complicit with his aims at worst. He is not altruistic, and he is not "protecting" them. He is advancing his own plans for power and using naked aggression to do so.
Luckily, the Georgians held out long enough for the Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, and Lithuania to arrive in Tiblisi before the Russians could get theere, and before they could kill the Georgian President which they were trying to do. That was one of the most couragous things I have seen done by a group of national leaders in my lifetime...and it worked.
Coupling that with Washington's strong response and Bush now sending the US military to spearhead humanitarian efforts for the Georgians...and at the same time provide a de facto military shield, has to this point halted the Russina military gambit.
The situation is still tense and a crisis for sure, but I believe now that Georgia will survive a free country.
If the populations of the two porvinces vote to go their own way, unfortunately, because of the immoral debacle we committed in Kosovo, I believe the UN will go along, as will the Russians of course, and Georgia will be deprived of those critical areas for its own defense.
The answer to this will likely be the US and Western Europe seriously upgrading and modernizing Georgia's military, her admission into NATO, and probably US or NATO bases in Georgia to ensure that she is not cut asunder by the Russian capability to at will come through that tunnel and land troops on the shore, all south of the Caucasus.
But make no mistake, the weaponry that the Georgians will utlimately receive in such a scenario, will allow them to do what they could not do this go around...that is target and bring down the tunnel, and target and oppose landing that would otherwise threaten them.
In addition to that, which will work against Putin's designs, there will also be other unintended consequences like the treaty Poland just signed, probably Ukraine's admittance into NATO as well as Ukraine severly restricting the Russian Black Sea fleet use of the base at Sevastapol, and other former satellites much more quickly and solidly being driven into the westen republics camp.
I am willing to bt that the Georgia President wins re-election in a landslide.
See my new site on this issue if you get the chance:
GEORGIA CONFLICT 2008
Your site is interesting, but lacks complexity in the “Background” section. Further, the critical presumption that Russia had this planned seems based on what you want to believe. Your subsequent portrayals become questionable thereby and by not addressing basic realities.
Russia warned Georgia repeatedly in the weeks preceding the war of harsh response to any remarkable escalation. This alone would have given Russia time for preparation. Further, these problems have been accentuated ever since Saakashvili was elected. His bellicose rhetoric has continued for those four years. His actions were inflammatory, shifting from agreement to attack back to supposed agreement. Given that lack of trust and violation of trust, Russia may well have prepared for longer than weeks.
However, we are left with these stark realities... Georgia agreed to further peace keeping arrangements only hours before the sneak attack in Ossetia. They chose the middle of the night to attack, when civilians were sleeping. They targeted the hospital, University and many residential districts, which were destroyed to the ground. Their peace-keepers turned on Russian peace keepers and killed them. If Georgia had not done this incredible escalation, the Russians wouldn’t have responded... The most glaring reality contradicting your assertions.
Russia responded immediately to the assault by calling an emergency UN session. In that meeting, the US and Britain refused action, or statement based on their objection to denouncing “use of force by Georgia, or South Ossetia.” Remarkably now, the US position is one of denouncing use of force. Thus, eighteen hours after Georgia attacked a sleeping city, Russia then sent its forces into South Ossetia in force.
President Saakashvili’s words for four years disregarded the aspirations of the regions allowed independence since 1992 (in close proximity to the Soviet permitting without total breakdown the several breakaway republics to assert and gain independence.)
The presumptions regarding Russian intent are also questionable by seeing exactly what Russia has done. They could have easily taken the whole of Georgia. Instead, they have not crossed the second mountain range, have not asserted ever that they were going to replace any government. They have focused on particular military targets that posed threats for another such sneak attack. People either do not know, or disregard the fact that the Gori military complex was only ten miles from the Ossetian border. To make the decision to repulse the sneak attack, only a deranged West would assume that Russia should leave a military intact and closely poised to reassert its madness. I suppose this same madness would have Russia re-arm their opponents.
Peripherally, it was not any action, nor word from the West, which convinced Russia to alter any action. In fact, they had publicly stated that their main military objectives were accomplished and they had ended major military action before the French came up with their initial plan to the Russians.
The media coverage from the West has been abominable. The avoidance of reality is shown in its discrediting the human suffering imposed by Georgia. Their rationale includes saying that since only hundreds of injured were at the main hospital (intentionally targeted and shelled by Georgians for hours), then the number of dead was questionable. Logic says that people covered in tons of rubble in completely leveled residential districts don’t simply disappear.
It is noteworthy, that your argument can be used for the Georgians, also. Tongue in cheek... They must have been preparing for a very long time to make a sneak attack on South Ossetia with a fully armed force of artillery and tanks.
Possibly we should consider the twelve year old American girl peacefully sitting in a restaurant with her family at about midnight on the 7th as the major shelling began and her subsequent hiding in a basement for the next day. When she got back to America, she thanked the Russians.
Whatever Russia’s misgivings about having an assertive NATO expanding its military postures all around Russia’s borders, the Russian action later on the 8th wouldn’t have happened if the Georgians hadn’t killed peace keepers and leveled apartments.