Posted on 08/13/2008 8:29:59 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
Ukraine threatened to blockade the Russian Black Sea Fleet yesterday in an act of solidarity with Georgia that risked escalating the conflict.
After flying to Tbilisi to assure Georgians of his countrys support, President Yushchenko signed an order imposing tough restrictions on the Russian fleet, which is based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. Mr Yushchenkos decree instructs Russia to give 72 hours notice of any movement of ships, aircraft or personnel in Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities were given the power to alter those plans.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had already warned Russia that it will bar ships from returning to Sevastopol if they take part in military action against Georgia. Moscow responded furiously, accusing Ukraine of a serious new antiRussian step.
Like Georgia, Ukraines pro-Western leadership is seeking membership of Nato in December. The democratic Orange Revolution that swept Mr Yushchenko and Yuliya Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister, to power in 2004 has long been loathed by Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister.
The Ukrainian Security Council issued a statement yesterday declaring that the presence of foreign warships in its waters poses a potential threat to Ukraines national security, particularly if parts of Russias Black Sea Fleet are used against third countries.
Russia and Ukraine are already at loggerheads over the future of the Crimean base, which Russia must vacate in 2017 under a 20-year lease agreement signed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Most of Crimeas population consider themselves to be Russians and are strongly pro-Moscow. Tensions have mounted over calls by politicians in Moscow not to surrender control of the territory, regardless of Ukraines wishes. Mr Yushchenko insists that the Black Sea Fleet must leave on time and that there is no prospect of extending the lease.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesonline.co.uk ...
Putin doesn’t have an empire to rule if he goes nuclear. He’s not suicidal - like Iran.
After all the activity I’ve seen recently about how careful we must be because Ivan has nukes....well so do we...and lest we forget MAD worked...and continues to work..the Russians will not use them and neither will we for the same reasons.
Unlike our “other” enemies, Ivan has a readily accessible “return address”. They know this, and we as well have an “address”. Again MAD works..now of course it DOES rely on both sides being unwilling to commit suicide, We aren’t and as odd as his behavior has been of late...I don’t think our “friends” are ready either.
Nice assumption. I don’t recall suggesting the Ukraine suddenly mothball it’s substantial military.
Funny how the Russians don't share your fear when it comes to our nuclear weapons. How is that?
The Russians are in no great position to do anything if we kick them out of the G-8, WTO, etc., place Ukraine in NATO tomorrow and handover a few thousand Stingers and Javelin missiles to the Georgians. What are they going to do, stick their thumb in our eye at the UN?
This is called hardball, and they aren't going to launch nukes at us over Georgia.
Here's a little secret for you, the Russians think your line of reasoning constitutes weakness and weakness must be exploited with further prodding.
And Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are NATO members. If Russia attacks one of them, by virtue of the alliance, we will have a huge war on our hand, right? At least with European help.
Go read up on the Sudetenland and then say that again.
The real lowdown on the Georgia situation.....
If the US does not act now, and yes militarily in some form (at least supporting Georgia with weapons)....Russia will go after another former satellite. If they get away with Georgia...someone else will be next
The Liberal-Globalist diplomacy track isnt going to cut it. The Russians know diplomacy is code for inaction.
It will get ugly if Russia is allowed to win in Georgia...and then decides to go after a Baltic state later. Then, there will be no choice but to send in US military forces
ooh this is going to get interesting
Giving them armaments isn’t quite what I had in mind. I was thinking of open engagement, as proposed on some other threads.
If Russia goes into Ukraine, WWIII is already on. Better to start it from a position of strength and maybe back the Bear down.
One step at a time.
Subsidiarity. Let the Ukrainians make their first step (port restrictions). If Russia moves pieces in response, then we move pieces.
Where is Turkey in all of this btw? Are they so tied to Russian gas they can’t call the Geogian President and ask if he needs some helicopters and additional protection troops brought in?
Good question, I think the Turks are probably in a position, (especially as a NATO country) that they do not want to “complicate” things any further. Just a hunch...
So NATO has been rattling sabres in the area for a while.
Putin waits for 2008 NATO and Wannabies Black Sea Cold War Exercise to finish and decides to test NATO for real starting in Georgia.
Curiouser and curiouser.
yitbos
Right! As Stalin used to say: “Probe! Probe! Probe! Until you hit steel.
yitbos
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