There are not more independents than Republicans. Obama is not winning men and Catholics. Other polls have showed that. And if he were he’d lead by much more than 3 points. To call out this one looks justifiable.
“There are not more independents than Republicans.”
There were, slightly, in this sample. When households are called randomly and normed for census parameters, the respondents are who they are. And all pollsters are saying that they’re getting fewer repondents saying they are Republican than in previous years.
Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters who norms for party affiliation. He does so based on his own previous polling. Right now he says that 29.2% of the electorate claims to be independent, while 31.6% claims to be Republican. Not a huge difference.
As for the Catholic vote:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx
Obama doesn’t have to win white men. He can win by winning women, hispanics and blacks, all of which he is currently winning in greater numbers than Kerry did.
From Pew: “The presumptive Democratic nominee currently holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain among women voters (51% to 37%), a considerable improvement from May, when Obama held a much narrower 47% to 42% margin. And his lead among this group is wider than those held by John Kerry (47% to 46%) and Al Gore (50% to 41%) over George W. Bush at this stage in 2004 and 2000, respectively.”
and
“7.24.2008
2008 National Survey of Latinos: Hispanic Voter Attitudes
by Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director, and Susan Minushkin, Deputy Director, Pew Hispanic Center
Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.”
John Kerry got 55% of the hispanic vote, while Pres. Bush got 44%.