Posted on 08/13/2008 10:55:51 AM PDT by AirForceGeorge
“I meant to say a big swing among Catholics.”
How ‘bout posting some actual numbers? “They are in our direction now” is not precise enough for the analyst in me.
IMO, as a Catholic, there is no such thing as the Catholic vote. Those who attend mass vote like other religious people, i.e., they tend to be Republican, while Catholics who never attend mass (CINOs) tend to vote like other non-religious people, i.e., Democrat. Sadly, the Democrats made inroads in 2006 even among churchgoing Catholics.
From washingtonpost.com November 11, 2006:
“Either way, the national exit polls told a dramatic story of changing views in the pews: Democrats recaptured the Catholic vote they had lost two years ago. They sliced the GOP’s advantage among weekly churchgoers to 12 percentage points, down from 18 points in 2004 congressional races and 22 points in the 2004 presidential contest. Democrats even siphoned off a portion of the Republican Party’s most loyal base, white evangelical Protestants.”
McCain has some work to do. And let’s hope he’s not stupid enough to pick Tom Ridge as veep. A lot of ardently religious Catholics will sit it out.
“The latest poll and I cannot remember...”
How convenient.
I’m not trying to be right. I’m analysing the state of the race as it is right now, and McCain is not winning. He is losing, slightly, popular vote-wise and electoral vote-wise. That doesn’t mean he will lose in November. I have no idea what the polls will say in November. I don’t know what the polls will say next week. I am commenting on the state of the race NOW, which is all any of us should be doing, not that that stops some Freepers from pretending they have a crystal ball.
If the polls change and say McCain’s winning, then he’s winning. But unless and until that happens, I’m not going to play the “happy happy joy joy Mac’s gonna win it all because Americans are lying racists” game that’s suddenly so popular around here.
“This poll claims Obama is winning among men...”
This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead. Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.
Salvation, do you remember the latest poll that had McCain jumping ahead with the Catholic vote?
I know my FRiend LadyNavyVet doesn’t think I’m fibbing... ;-)
“This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead.”
McCain will win men by much more than 8 points. Take it to the bank. I have no idea about women but I imagine pro-infanticide, pro-crminial sex offender, pro-pornography record is not going to necessarily endear all of them to him. Obama may and will likely certainly win them but not by the margin I think he will lose men to McCain. Put differently McCain is winning more GOPers than Obama Democrats, and in most recent polls significantly more independents, which have historically decided elections.
“Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.”
That’s too bad for them. They’re tools then. They ought to realize it and vote differently.
Rasmussen has McCain up 10 in Ohio, the latest SUSA has McCain up 6 in Florida, the latest Rasmussen has McCain up 7 in Missouri, McCain is expanding in Nevada up 3 from a past deficit, he is closing in Iowa (only 5 down from a previous double digit deficit), closing in Colorado, New Mexico. McCain is undiputedly winning in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia, all in themselves strong indicator states of the next President. In fact with Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, West Virignia, and Arkansas, I cannot think of a better indicator of a winner in November with all those historically indicative states in our column. Virginia will be for McCain too (+10 fav rating). So I don’t know what is brewing with these hypothetical national numbers but in the states that count McCain is carrying his load pretty well.
This is looking better and better.
Who is changing from “undecided” to voting for McCain?
PS. They didn’t check with me by making a phone call. LOL!
“I know my FRiend LadyNavyVet doesn’t think I’m fibbing... ;-)”
No, but I do think you’re able to google.
There has been a slight movement toward McCain in the latest polling, both state and national, although still not enough for him to be winning. My belief is that was because of gas prices. Unfortunately for McCain, prices have eased a bit and the media has done everything possible to take the issue off the front burner. They know that drilling is the one strong issue Republicans have that resonates with large numbers of voters.
You will not find a projection of what will happen in November in any of my posts. I am analysing the state of the race as it stands RIGHT NOW, because it is way, way too early to start projecting the winner on any scientific basis. People take issue with me over it, because they don’t want to hear how things stand now, they want to hear that McCain is going to win. They want to believe that all the polls are rigged except the ones that have McCain up. They never look at pollsters’ track records, although the good ones post that info on their websites. They deride pollsters’ methodology without even bothering to read about how polling is done. Pew has, on their website, pages and pages outlining their methodology in excruciating detail. I doubt any Freeper but me has bothered to read it. Yet Freepers are quick to judge with no evidence, all because their “team” is down by a few points within the margin of error.
Here is the exact title from the Pew website and first sentence of the poll that you “called out” as inaccurate:
“Presidential Race Draws Even
GOP Base Getting Behind McCain
August 13, 2008
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has disappeared.”
THAT’S biased and inaccurate?! THAT needs to be called out? Do you think the Obama campaign was happy to read that? Only on Freep can such good news for McCain be greeted with kneejerk, baseless scorn. Sometimes I am sorely disappointed in my fellow Freepers, too many of whom are such partisans that they don’t think, they don’t analyse, they just react.
I am able to google but I’m not going to. I remember what I saw. Now, I’m pretty sure it was Zogby and Gallup.
“Now, I’m pretty sure it was Zogby and Gallup.”
The only item about the Catholic vote that I can find at Gallup’s website I already posted to you.
Be wary of Zogby. His methodology is sloppy.
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