“The latest poll and I cannot remember...”
How convenient.
I’m not trying to be right. I’m analysing the state of the race as it is right now, and McCain is not winning. He is losing, slightly, popular vote-wise and electoral vote-wise. That doesn’t mean he will lose in November. I have no idea what the polls will say in November. I don’t know what the polls will say next week. I am commenting on the state of the race NOW, which is all any of us should be doing, not that that stops some Freepers from pretending they have a crystal ball.
If the polls change and say McCain’s winning, then he’s winning. But unless and until that happens, I’m not going to play the “happy happy joy joy Mac’s gonna win it all because Americans are lying racists” game that’s suddenly so popular around here.
“This poll claims Obama is winning among men...”
This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead. Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.
Salvation, do you remember the latest poll that had McCain jumping ahead with the Catholic vote?
I know my FRiend LadyNavyVet doesn’t think I’m fibbing... ;-)
“This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead.”
McCain will win men by much more than 8 points. Take it to the bank. I have no idea about women but I imagine pro-infanticide, pro-crminial sex offender, pro-pornography record is not going to necessarily endear all of them to him. Obama may and will likely certainly win them but not by the margin I think he will lose men to McCain. Put differently McCain is winning more GOPers than Obama Democrats, and in most recent polls significantly more independents, which have historically decided elections.
“Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.”
That’s too bad for them. They’re tools then. They ought to realize it and vote differently.
Rasmussen has McCain up 10 in Ohio, the latest SUSA has McCain up 6 in Florida, the latest Rasmussen has McCain up 7 in Missouri, McCain is expanding in Nevada up 3 from a past deficit, he is closing in Iowa (only 5 down from a previous double digit deficit), closing in Colorado, New Mexico. McCain is undiputedly winning in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia, all in themselves strong indicator states of the next President. In fact with Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, West Virignia, and Arkansas, I cannot think of a better indicator of a winner in November with all those historically indicative states in our column. Virginia will be for McCain too (+10 fav rating). So I don’t know what is brewing with these hypothetical national numbers but in the states that count McCain is carrying his load pretty well.